2024/12/01
Another 48h - 5 Red Bearish Trading Days Are Behind In The DXY
“us unemployment rate is likely to determine the direction this week!
less than +4.1% bullish? higher than +4.1% bearish? or vice versa?”
The highlight of this week is undoubtedly the publication of the US unemployment rate on Friday - and also the consumer sentiment report from the University of Michigan, 90 minutes later. Therefore, the entire price is likely to increase over the course of the week towards the last hours of the week. Which is why, based on last week, I'm basically expecting a weaker
DXY, including a weaker and cheaper 
US10Y, which should at least continue to give WallStreet 
SP500 even our new old long YM1! 4XSetUp - a bit of a boost.- Who Will Takin` Over The Terrain Between The Annual Highs?
DXY . Whether this is a medium-term trend reversal for the coming days, even weeks? Or was it just a week of consolidation to continue rising? That remains to be seen.
“At present, the developed countries condescend to the developing ones.”
George Soros
- Will the bulls recapture the terrain above 106.517 points again?
- Will the bears recapture the terrain under 104.447 points again?
The price action between 107.348 points (Annual Year High 2023 from 2023/10/03) and/or 106.517 points (1st Annual Year High 2024 from 2024/04/16) are groundbreaking. Last week the bears took over. Pathbreaking for this week, maybe even by the end of the year, after
DXY closed at 105.782 points last weekend, is even the first annual high of 2024 and/or the upper trend line of the w trend reversal formation with 104.447 points from 2024/08/01. Because a price action above would give the US bulls confirmation that the rally from the annual low in 2024 to more or less new annual highs in 2024 and/or 2023 is continuing. While a price action back below into the w trend reversal formation should please the US bears again. And we must have to argue that all the price action of the last few days, the last few weeks, since the end of September 2024, is in danger of running out of steam. And we would have to assume a lower DXY .Anyway, the large w trend reversal formation reflects both the possible end of the so-called carry trade in the
USDJPY and the fiscal and economic policy weakness of the 
EURUSD compared to the DXY . That's why I pay so much attention to the price action of this w trend reversal formation, from the summer 2024. And basically assume that the bullish DXY continues to rise above - and/or vice versa, that the bearish DXY falls below further. In addition to this basic scenario, I would also like to introduce the US unemployment, which is always published on the first Friday of each month. Why? Because since the publication of the US unemployment rate for August 2024, the DXY has been rising! Why? Because in August 2024 we have had something of a peak in the US unemployment rate, with +4.3% for July 2024, since the coronavirus outbreak in 2021. Which back then led to fears that the US Economy would slide into an impending US recession. Which also had an impact on the stock market at the beginning of August 2024.With best wishes
and with good intentions!
Aaron
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