Another 48h - DXY (Doesn't) Buy Good Economic Data Today
2024/11/01
Another 48h - DXY Doesn't Buy Good Economic Data Today
“us economy remains robust with an unemployment rate of 4.1%!
is that why dxy is just taking a breather this week? for next week?”
In the past calendar week, investors and traders handled the
DXY above our w formation for the first time (during Wednesday's trading session as when Wall Street was open). Only within a few hours? But at least! Our learning-educated headline was: "One swallow doesn't make a summer!" And so during the following Thursday, last week, we had a very strong bearish selling day. In order to regain almost half of Thursday's loss on Friday. I don't want to scare you - but greed is back in the DXY . Which is proven by the fact that in the last 20 trading days, after the low, only 3 trading days ended in bearish red. The DXY has risen in 17 out of 20 trading days since the annual rise until last Friday, on September 27, 2024. And had 4 red bearish trading days this week - until today. It seems like that we will have today the first green bullish trading day today, on last trading, on friday, after us labour market data release.104.447 points - (2024/08/01) - High W-Formation
104.172 points - (2024/10/25) - last price action
103.820 points - (2017/01/03) - Historical Mid Term High
103.104 points - (2024/10/10) - High While Last Inflation Data
These were the most important price actions for this calendar week!
And/Or these are the most important price actions for next calendar week!
“Unfortunately, the more complex the system, the better room for error.”
George Soros
- Will We Handle (104.477 points) A Bullish Breakout?
- Does The 2017 High (103.820 points) Serve As Support?
- Does The 2017 High (103.820 points) Serve As Resistance?
- Will DXY Fall Back (103.104 points) based on the US economic data?
These 4 questions were supposed to be answered this week - but they weren't. So we'll continue to focus on this price action next week again. So that we can learn something new with the help of the price action; so that we remember that we already knew something old and now know it confirmed. Because a breakout price action above 104.477 points should confirm the medium-term trend reversal formation, i.e. w formation. While a fall below 103.104 points could possibly make the bear's mouth water again due to disappointing and/or negative US economic data. This was the educational learning stuff for this calendar week - and/or will still be next week.
For this week, I have also included 2 technical indicators, also due to the numerous US economic data. In order to be able to measure the responsive price action on both the price axis (using the roc) and the time axis (using the aroon). Since 1st October, both the ROC and the Aroon indicator have shown a bullish indication on a short-term period (120 hours - one calendar week). But yesterday both were dissolved again for the first time. And that just one day before the US Unemployment Rate report. Today's US employment data was good with 4.1% - better as the majority expects 4.2%. And the
DXY is reacting as expected. Before the publication today, the DXY fell - all the way to our historical medium-term sideways trend line (annual high from 2017). If you will, we can hypothesize that traders and investors are currently undecided as to whether the US economy is actually facing a soft landing. And the USD bulls are afraid of their own courage!? The bears don't want to assert that we are facing a US recession?! I'm basically in the camp of the SoftLanding scenario - and also based on the latest US economic figures. US inflation is now higher than US growth again. So that the USA currently seems to be de facto growing out of US stagflation. And that includes a more than stable US unemployment rate of 4.1%. So the Fed can operate with a further rate cut of 25 basis points. But more on that in the coming days. Let's get back to today's trading day - the price action today is telling something very interesting.104.570 - Wednesday, last week (intraday high)
104.573 - Monday, this week (intraday high)
104.636 - Tuesday, this week (intraday high)
104.436 - Wednesday, this week (intraday high)
104.144 points was the last price action, as I wrote this post.
The bulls have tried to break out of the w trend reversal formation three times since August 2024. And they managed to do it 3 times in the short term (Wednesday last week, Monday and Tuesday this week) - while the USD bears were able to fend off a fourth breakout attempt on Wednesday just below the high of the trend reversal formation. Which is why the upper price actions make perfect sense for the coming week. If the USD bulls recapture these four price action areas, it is likely to force the USD bears to capitalize in the short term, which will then not only confirm the breakout from the w-formation but also accelerate it. Because USD bears need to close their short positions - and new USD bulls could get a taste. By the way; me too! So I am waiting also for such a bullish scenario, even break out, in order to then possibly formulate a long 4XSetUp - as I have formulated several times before.
With best wishes
and with good intentions!
Aaron
Another 48h - DXY ... is pure information material.
By trying to give you even more information about the
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