DXY/ USDJPY - FED LOCKHART & KASHKARI SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS
Short USD positioning:
Long GBPUSD and short USDJPY - Sterling re-balancing higher (attached), no fed hike likely thus 20% priced in needs to be faded out in USD downside. Further, my bets are any real BOJ action doesnt happen (e.g. depo/ lsp cut or QE) - All JPY STIR markets are infact pricing hikes, there isnt any level of cuts priced (Libor, Tibor, Euroyen). US election broad USD risk and the USD is in a no win situation for Brainards speech (e.g. hawkish and Yen risk-off demand weighs on yen - dovish and USD rate hike hopes priced at 20% deprice USD lower) thus USDJPY is the best lower-risk expression for this view pre/post speech.
I continue to keep short SPX too. DXY imo will move towards 92.
Fed Lockhart Highlights:
Fed's Lockhart: Data Supports 'Serious' Rate Rise Discussion At FOMC
Lockhart: Won't Say When He Favors Next Increase in Fed Target Rate
Lockhart: Economy's Performance Suggest Fed Will Meet Goals in Medium Term
Lockhart: Economy Expanding At 'Moderate' Pace, 2016 GDP Likely 2%
Lockhart: Job Growth Continuing, Slowdown in Pace of New Hires Not Surprising
Lockhart: Still Expects Inflation to Rise, But Recent Progress Has Stalled
Lockhart: Second-Half U.S. Growth Likely to Pick Up From First Half
Lockhart: Job Market Still Moving Toward Full Employment
Lockhart: Economy 'Chugging Along, Not Stalling Out'
Lockhart: Inflation Expectations Stable, Well Anchored
Lockhart: Inflation Should Rise When Full Employment Met
Fed's Lockhart: No Urgency to Raise Rates Right Now
Lockhart: Financial Stability Risks Don't Require Rate Rise
Lockhart: Fed Not Being Led Around By Markets
Lockhart: Isn't Worried Market Rate View Out of Whack With Fed Officials
Lockhart: Market View Won't Stop Fed From Acting on Rates
Lockhart: Financial System Much More Resilient to Shocks
Lockhart: 'Time Will Tell' If Fed to Further Mark Down Long Run Fed Rate
Lockhart: Not 'Embarrassed' By Fed Dot Plots
Lockhart: Won't Comment on Trump Criticism of Fed
Fed Kashkari Highlights:
Fed's Kashkari Highlights Causes for Tepid Post-Crisis Economic Growth in Paper
Kashkari Explores Solutions Like Increased Government Spending, Immigration Reform
Fed's Kashkari Highlights Causes for Tepid Post-Crisis Economic Growth
Fed's Kashkari: No 'Huge Urgency' to 'Do Anything'
Long GBPUSD and short USDJPY - Sterling re-balancing higher (attached), no fed hike likely thus 20% priced in needs to be faded out in USD downside. Further, my bets are any real BOJ action doesnt happen (e.g. depo/ lsp cut or QE) - All JPY STIR markets are infact pricing hikes, there isnt any level of cuts priced (Libor, Tibor, Euroyen). US election broad USD risk and the USD is in a no win situation for Brainards speech (e.g. hawkish and Yen risk-off demand weighs on yen - dovish and USD rate hike hopes priced at 20% deprice USD lower) thus USDJPY is the best lower-risk expression for this view pre/post speech.
I continue to keep short SPX too. DXY imo will move towards 92.
Fed Lockhart Highlights:
Fed's Lockhart: Data Supports 'Serious' Rate Rise Discussion At FOMC
Lockhart: Won't Say When He Favors Next Increase in Fed Target Rate
Lockhart: Economy's Performance Suggest Fed Will Meet Goals in Medium Term
Lockhart: Economy Expanding At 'Moderate' Pace, 2016 GDP Likely 2%
Lockhart: Job Growth Continuing, Slowdown in Pace of New Hires Not Surprising
Lockhart: Still Expects Inflation to Rise, But Recent Progress Has Stalled
Lockhart: Second-Half U.S. Growth Likely to Pick Up From First Half
Lockhart: Job Market Still Moving Toward Full Employment
Lockhart: Economy 'Chugging Along, Not Stalling Out'
Lockhart: Inflation Expectations Stable, Well Anchored
Lockhart: Inflation Should Rise When Full Employment Met
Fed's Lockhart: No Urgency to Raise Rates Right Now
Lockhart: Financial Stability Risks Don't Require Rate Rise
Lockhart: Fed Not Being Led Around By Markets
Lockhart: Isn't Worried Market Rate View Out of Whack With Fed Officials
Lockhart: Market View Won't Stop Fed From Acting on Rates
Lockhart: Financial System Much More Resilient to Shocks
Lockhart: 'Time Will Tell' If Fed to Further Mark Down Long Run Fed Rate
Lockhart: Not 'Embarrassed' By Fed Dot Plots
Lockhart: Won't Comment on Trump Criticism of Fed
Fed Kashkari Highlights:
Fed's Kashkari Highlights Causes for Tepid Post-Crisis Economic Growth in Paper
Kashkari Explores Solutions Like Increased Government Spending, Immigration Reform
Fed's Kashkari Highlights Causes for Tepid Post-Crisis Economic Growth
Fed's Kashkari: No 'Huge Urgency' to 'Do Anything'
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