Bulls Need to Hold 3905
Updated
My trading plan for the past 2 weeks has been to sell the rips.
Looking over all the indicators, my bias is leaning to 3905 bounce and low volume climb into CPI and FOMC over the next week or two.
Should bulls fail to hold 3905, all bets are off. Selling is likely to resume.
Apple would likely need to do badly, but with a shiny new IPhone and 5.5 billion in buy backs, Apple could carry the markets over the next week or two.
Because AMZN new series did not get the reception it was seeking may be lagging behind the other mega caps.
ICHIMOKU 1D
ICHI 1W
The Bull wants bounce here on lagging and price and head up channel for weak cloud crossover.
The Bear wants the lagging to break the bottom of the bull cloud and break bull support before 2023.
ES1W
INCOMPLETE Inverse Head and Shoulder
Price target is 4745
Unlikely, but with the dollar soaring higher anything is possible.
This DAX breakdown I did has a similar pattern but a triple bottom on what is a very strong support.
This path is extremely unlikely, I just mention it while its still on the table for a bullish week or two.
Event Volatility hedging for CPI and FOMC will be strong.
This event hedging will increase VANNA and CHARM flows.
VANNA and CHARM flows would likely drive prices higher over the next week or two.
I created this volatility monitor to visualize the vix structure and determine if VIX is getting compressed enough for short squeezes.
HYG and XLF as leading indicators
Using HYG and XLF to set alerts for bull and bear
XLF W
Weekly XLF is forming and bear flag and which still has some upside in the coming weeks and a bounce of support to start the week.
My trading plan for the week is to confirm 3905 holds for bulls. This support is key.
30m chart has numerous active patterns and channels to validate / invalidate over the next couple days.
While there are more bear flags, bulls are in control of 3905. If that breaks, all bets are off for the bull.
The Bearish H&S / Bear flag completed its structure at the 3095 and marked by a double bottom.
Bears are looking to push below 3905 and complete bear flags 2,3,4 and 5 before the end of September.
For the bulls, complete the double bottom W forms an ascending triangle with matching trend line. (Blue 1,2)
A closer look at the levels
Looking over all the indicators, my bias is leaning to 3905 bounce and low volume climb into CPI and FOMC over the next week or two.
Should bulls fail to hold 3905, all bets are off. Selling is likely to resume.
Apple would likely need to do badly, but with a shiny new IPhone and 5.5 billion in buy backs, Apple could carry the markets over the next week or two.
Because AMZN new series did not get the reception it was seeking may be lagging behind the other mega caps.
ICHIMOKU 1D
- Strong Support at 3900
- Confirms Downtrend. 3900 line in sand.
- Volatility leans bearish
ICHI 1W
The Bull wants bounce here on lagging and price and head up channel for weak cloud crossover.
The Bear wants the lagging to break the bottom of the bull cloud and break bull support before 2023.
ES1W
INCOMPLETE Inverse Head and Shoulder
Price target is 4745
Unlikely, but with the dollar soaring higher anything is possible.
This DAX breakdown I did has a similar pattern but a triple bottom on what is a very strong support.
This path is extremely unlikely, I just mention it while its still on the table for a bullish week or two.
Event Volatility hedging for CPI and FOMC will be strong.
This event hedging will increase VANNA and CHARM flows.
VANNA and CHARM flows would likely drive prices higher over the next week or two.
I created this volatility monitor to visualize the vix structure and determine if VIX is getting compressed enough for short squeezes.
HYG and XLF as leading indicators
Using HYG and XLF to set alerts for bull and bear
XLF W
Weekly XLF is forming and bear flag and which still has some upside in the coming weeks and a bounce of support to start the week.
My trading plan for the week is to confirm 3905 holds for bulls. This support is key.
30m chart has numerous active patterns and channels to validate / invalidate over the next couple days.
While there are more bear flags, bulls are in control of 3905. If that breaks, all bets are off for the bull.
The Bearish H&S / Bear flag completed its structure at the 3095 and marked by a double bottom.
Bears are looking to push below 3905 and complete bear flags 2,3,4 and 5 before the end of September.
For the bulls, complete the double bottom W forms an ascending triangle with matching trend line. (Blue 1,2)
A closer look at the levels
Note
The Bearish H&S / Bear flag completed its structure at the 3095 and marked by a double bottom .Should be 3905, not 30..
Note
Lots of volatility as the cloud anticipated.Reminder to keep an eye on vix. once it gets to a certain level it gets smashed back down like before.
Short week so bulls losing 3905 could open the door for some quick moves down.
Note
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