SPX vs. NIKKEI225 SELL; Massive SHORT!!
Updated
SHORT this spread endlessly!!
Here is the Weekly
The "math" bears this out, readily! NIKKEI225 has a 13%-15% advantage - including FX - over the SPX. This is by far the best Equities/Risk spread out there if one must be long equities. (... which one ought Not to want to do under any circumstance, at these levels! :-)
Here is the FX component - USDJPY
Here is the Weekly
The "math" bears this out, readily! NIKKEI225 has a 13%-15% advantage - including FX - over the SPX. This is by far the best Equities/Risk spread out there if one must be long equities. (... which one ought Not to want to do under any circumstance, at these levels! :-)
Here is the FX component - USDJPY
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It naturally follows that the DJI (Dow) / Nikkei225 is a DEVASTATING SHORT!!...The best of them all!
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Here is an other version..... a difference without distinction.
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Now, if think the above chart - Dow/Nikkei225 - is ridiculous, think again!!We expect a full -70% decline in the DJIA within the end of this Market Cycle, in real terms(!!),based on any accurate, forward looking measure, such as the MAPE, or the Market Cap / GVA / MAPE, or any other, 90%+ accurate forecasting measures known.
Learn it, live it, love it!!
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In short, we fully expect US Market Capitalization to decline by 2/3 by the end of this investment cycle! (An abject, generational and "complete devastation", one might observe.)Ironically, that would be still nothing more than a garden-variety reversion to historical norms.
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Her is the Daily chart for the DJIA / Nikkei225 ...... to answer the question: Is this ready to go?...
Yes, it is!
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"Extreme valuations mean extreme sensitivityPrior to the bubble period of recent decades, the average dividend yield of the S&P 500 was close to 4%. During much of the post-war period, the combination of robust labor force growth, high productivity, and moderate inflation generated growth of more than 6% annually in nominal fundamentals. Add a 4% dividend yield to 6% nominal growth, and there’s the average 10% nominal return that investors associate with historical returns for the S&P 500, and imagine is still a relevant figure despite current valuation extremes.
In a world where the S&P 500 yields 4%, pushing long-term expected returns up by 0.5% requires a loss of (.04/.045-1=) just -11% in stock prices. But see, in today’s world where the S&P 500 yields 1.6%, pushing long-term expected returns up by that same 0.5% requires a loss of (.016/.021-1=) about -24%.
So it’s not enough to assume that extreme valuations will be sustained over the long-term. One also has to assume that there will be virtually no change at all in expected returns. That’s because even slight increases in expected returns from these valuations are likely to drive steep drawdowns in stock prices." - Hussman Funds
... while reminding ourselves that even with two Financial Bubbles, so far, S&P net returns lagged those of US T-Bills, including the 2000 and 2009 market tops!!
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Regarding Wall Street's "check mark shaped economic recovery" ....
... and similar tall tales.
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Wanna see the (imminent) future fate of Wall Street's "check mark shaped economic recovery"??...[ Dr. ] Copper Weekly; "The base metal of economic expansions".
Has anyone ever seen an RSI Divergence ( the size of Montana) like this one, not to mention that perfect, massive H & S on the same RSI? - Text book.
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The 4 hr. Gold / Copper RatioIt IS already in the Reversal Zone!
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Here is an other clue: Crude Oil
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Trade closed: target reached
FLAT;Having made stupid money, so far, every single day since we have entered this SHORT ....
... it is time for it to take a breezer here and for us to take the money temporarily off the table. - Not for vary long, though!!
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This one ...isn't about to fare much better here, either!
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This is definitely ...... a FLAT here - for now!
We rode this down here for a virtually strait -12%, for some serious green!
Will be back soon to do it again! :-)
Trade closed: target reached
FLAT - for now;Order cancelled
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