Morning Update: SPX Futures struggling for Direction
2023 is getting off to an unremarkable start.
This overlapping pattern that is consolidating near recent lows tells me my analysis of a standard b of B retracement may be in jeopardy. As I have stated in the past, B-waves, much like 4th-waves can be complex. These are areas within both motive and corrective waves where traders are carving out counter trend patterns. This low level consolidation in the ES could be signaling that price has no intention of following an ideal pathway.
The longer we consolidate down here, the less likely we will retrace to an ideal area of 3985-4000. I'll repeat for the both the benefit of my long-term followers, and or, casual readers of my work, I spend 90% of my time analyzing charts and 10% of the time trading that analysis. B-waves and 4th waves are never areas that peak my trading interest. These are areas of high trader indecision.
The below micro is a last ditch count to apply to a standard retracement, failure to get above the 3900 area soon, will throw me into the camp of an ABC Flat with the potential for immediate reconciliation lower. The problem is that reconciliation points us to as low as sub 3600 if our A-wave is to equal of C-wave. A=C is always the 1.0 Fibonacci extension and the most common and basic target area of any pattern. Only Flats complete less than the 1.0 extension area.
So we wait (and not trade) to see if price will decide to breakout higher today, or continue to stay range bound today...whereas if that is today's result...increases our odds of a B-Wave flat and reconciliation lower should follow.
Best to all,
Chris
This overlapping pattern that is consolidating near recent lows tells me my analysis of a standard b of B retracement may be in jeopardy. As I have stated in the past, B-waves, much like 4th-waves can be complex. These are areas within both motive and corrective waves where traders are carving out counter trend patterns. This low level consolidation in the ES could be signaling that price has no intention of following an ideal pathway.
The longer we consolidate down here, the less likely we will retrace to an ideal area of 3985-4000. I'll repeat for the both the benefit of my long-term followers, and or, casual readers of my work, I spend 90% of my time analyzing charts and 10% of the time trading that analysis. B-waves and 4th waves are never areas that peak my trading interest. These are areas of high trader indecision.
The below micro is a last ditch count to apply to a standard retracement, failure to get above the 3900 area soon, will throw me into the camp of an ABC Flat with the potential for immediate reconciliation lower. The problem is that reconciliation points us to as low as sub 3600 if our A-wave is to equal of C-wave. A=C is always the 1.0 Fibonacci extension and the most common and basic target area of any pattern. Only Flats complete less than the 1.0 extension area.
So we wait (and not trade) to see if price will decide to breakout higher today, or continue to stay range bound today...whereas if that is today's result...increases our odds of a B-Wave flat and reconciliation lower should follow.
Best to all,
Chris
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