S&P 500 E-mini FuturesUpdated ES December Contract at an area of significant confluence
See my post of November 6th for more background
In my November 6th post I noted that the 4040 area would be important for ES December Contract. The Index rallied to the 4050 area but failed there on November15th and hasn't had a daily close above 4040 since then. We are now approaching this area again and might see a correction to the 3950 / 3935 area before a rally back towards the 4100 area during December.
From this daily chart we see that the level has settled firmly above the Ichimoku cloud which is a Bullish indication, if we switch to the weekly chart we are approaching the bottom of the cloud where it may meet resistance. The daily 9 period RSI while at 65 is flat and not making the same new highs as recent price action. An indication of divergence that the current move up may be running out of steam.
The Weekly close on Friday was 4032 which is at Fib 618 retrace of the August 16 close high of 4307.75 and the October 12 close low of 3588.50 the 786 retrace of this level lies at 4153
Other levels in this area to watch that might see choppy resistance
The Weekly pivot R1 lies at 4045
The Monthly pivot R1 lies at 4037
Last weeks close 4032 (see above)
The 200 Day MA lies at 4059 - the index failed at the 200 Day MA the last 2 times it reached it and tends to be respectful of this level.
Summary for the week commencing 28th November 2022
I think we'll see correction to 3950 - 3935 area. Lower level support lies at the bottom of the current price channel range of 3910. The weekly pivot S1 is at 3908 so we should see solid support around this area.
Then a rally back could be contained by the following
The trendline going back to January and has been hit 2 times already, is at 4060 area
The 200 Day MA is currently at 4060
Finally - longer term
Breaking out above the 4060 area we have the following levels to watch
Phycological round number 4100
Weekly Pivot R2 4115
50 Week MA 4145
Fib 786 retracement of August high to October low (see above) 4153
September high 4175
Monthly pivot R2 4192
In my November 6th post I noted that the 4040 area would be important for ES December Contract. The Index rallied to the 4050 area but failed there on November15th and hasn't had a daily close above 4040 since then. We are now approaching this area again and might see a correction to the 3950 / 3935 area before a rally back towards the 4100 area during December.
From this daily chart we see that the level has settled firmly above the Ichimoku cloud which is a Bullish indication, if we switch to the weekly chart we are approaching the bottom of the cloud where it may meet resistance. The daily 9 period RSI while at 65 is flat and not making the same new highs as recent price action. An indication of divergence that the current move up may be running out of steam.
The Weekly close on Friday was 4032 which is at Fib 618 retrace of the August 16 close high of 4307.75 and the October 12 close low of 3588.50 the 786 retrace of this level lies at 4153
Other levels in this area to watch that might see choppy resistance
The Weekly pivot R1 lies at 4045
The Monthly pivot R1 lies at 4037
Last weeks close 4032 (see above)
The 200 Day MA lies at 4059 - the index failed at the 200 Day MA the last 2 times it reached it and tends to be respectful of this level.
Summary for the week commencing 28th November 2022
I think we'll see correction to 3950 - 3935 area. Lower level support lies at the bottom of the current price channel range of 3910. The weekly pivot S1 is at 3908 so we should see solid support around this area.
Then a rally back could be contained by the following
The trendline going back to January and has been hit 2 times already, is at 4060 area
The 200 Day MA is currently at 4060
Finally - longer term
Breaking out above the 4060 area we have the following levels to watch
Phycological round number 4100
Weekly Pivot R2 4115
50 Week MA 4145
Fib 786 retracement of August high to October low (see above) 4153
September high 4175
Monthly pivot R2 4192
Note
Further to my analysis above on 27th November and as per my prediction for last week, the market fell back to the 3950 area and rallied to the 4100 area before hitting the trendline for the year but interestingly closed above the 200 D MA on Friday 2nd. I'll post a new chart today with my latest update. If you find this analysis useful please do hit the like and follow buttons to I can gauge the level of interest.
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