Blowoff Top Incoming: Do Not Short Yet!
Updated
Chart says all. Pattern from August 2020, now making same insane run. The 1.62 Fibo extension from September correction is at 4720.
Do not short based on:
"I think the price is too high!"
"It's overbought, must come down!"
"How can it get any higher?! Already nosebleed!"
"I feel lucky!"
Short on signal; the engulfing bear candle after blowup. IF it follows overlay, gonna be Tues 9 Nov...
The retracement after top should fall to 50 DMA IMO... ~4480; then perhaps another run in December?! GLTA!
This is not advice, just another tutorial worth evry penny u paid for it!
Do not short based on:
"I think the price is too high!"
"It's overbought, must come down!"
"How can it get any higher?! Already nosebleed!"
"I feel lucky!"
Short on signal; the engulfing bear candle after blowup. IF it follows overlay, gonna be Tues 9 Nov...
The retracement after top should fall to 50 DMA IMO... ~4480; then perhaps another run in December?! GLTA!
This is not advice, just another tutorial worth evry penny u paid for it!
Note
May have topped 11/04, but might well get higher yet on Friday.More to follow...
Note
Getting a buy signal on WT in the 5m in Fri PM trade, going long for power hour scalpNote
Moved ITM, scalped itNote
Reloaded and scalped again, back in cashTrade active
Entered short EOD Friday 11/05, Happy Guy Fawke's Day. See related posts for details.In late trade after gap fill meeting strong R at 4700. Shorting the pushback; IMO we topped today.
GLTA!
Trade active
Entered more bear spreads 11/08 EOD. Might get surprised Tues 11/09 if they get one final pump from it.. hedged my bets.Note
Added five spreads each altogether in 30 put spreads now. Enough for ON IMO.Note
Aiaiai looking bearish EOD, again... opened a SPY VCS short the 29 Nov 478 calls vs 488s, ten to startTrade active
Opened 5 VIX Nov $17 callsTrade active
Closed on this and flipped calls on the bounce. Although the move was sudden and impressive, ETFs only sold off $2 by EOD and RTY is still pumped high, everything still near ATHs, a real bear move is coming IMO...Note
NB: All the real action of the day on 11/09 occurred between 09:45 and 10:05. Tanked off after gap fill for 20 minutes and spent the rest of session just bumping along the bottom. Often this all-day bearishness will be followed by a rally on the next day. Sometimes you get an EOD rally but I wouldn't bet on this one today. might close at LOTD...
Note
11/09 close of 4685 just ~30 pips below the ATH. Not a huge selloff, more like an opening salvo. This dip will probably get bought up IMO. Not betting on it. Just watching in cash.Note
AH futurrz bought up, sold off. ON price testing support, break below could start the cascadeTrade closed: target reached
See related ideas, closing this one, clearly shorting time!Note
Follow-up, still do not feel that going full bore short is a good idea... another damned parabolic can come in here anytime, NQ has not fully double topped, need to see QQQ go over $400, ES might get push to another ATH.IF you follow Peter Eliades, very useful insights, he projected top on 5 nov and now claims this will prove to be the ultimate ATH. So far, it holds, check out his app:
stockmarketcycles.com/services/daily-video-commentary
Note
Oops this public commentary channel link works:youtube.com/c/stockmarketcycles
Note
Still waiting for the parabolic endgameTrade active
Might be here now, might push even higher, could cocntinue to rise into early December. 1-3 Dec might be new ATHs, typically bullish then. Euphoria over Powell reappointment faded quickly but now it bulls again, any position here is extremely high risk; flipped puts today and back in cash.
Anything can happen now, and probably will!
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