Market wants guidance but ignores all data; Trends

So we've got a lower high 30m, and the downtrend of the 30m would be very easy to push below coming in at anything below 4146. Many of the other trends are likely still poised to bring in lower lows if we have any downward momentum.

However, momentum seems to be nonexistent. CPI data has normally been a major mover, but in the end it wasn't. Jobs giving way to potential recession, we still didn't move much. Not sure what the market is looking for, but it just seems we are stuck and no one is confident in a downward move or an uptrend to new highs.

Ultimately the longer we stay here, the longer I think trends will keep us stuck here.

Trends into today;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4159 Uptrend (5/12/2023) Lower High
1Hr - 4166 Uptrend (5/10/2023) Higher High
2Hr - 4166 Uptrend (5/10/2023) Higher High
3Hr - 4151 Uptrend (5/5/2023) Lower High
4Hr - 4124 Uptrend (5/10/2023) Higher High
6Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Higher Low
12Hr - 4083 Downtrend (5/4/2023) Higher Low
Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low

Long Position;
Any movement below that 6hr trendline has shown to be a strong level of support and come back up. That level today is around 4135.

The Short Position;
Up here. I haven't gone short yet, but the level around 4159 based on the 30m would say that is the entry point to take us lower.

Economic Data;
Nothing major. Michigan inflation and consumer data.

Earnings;
No earnings today

Ultimately... I might jump in if the market turns negative and carry it over the $300 I need and just cash out this week. That will give me my $2500 quota for the S&P. I have the bonus of money made on the 6E to support if I decide to just come up short this week.

It really comes in to the major tech stocks and the Nasdaq coming off making new highs. We are one "Sell the Rip" away from a leg down.

My sentiment into today (from 4159)
Shorter Term - Bearish
Short Term - Neutral
Medium Term - Neutral/ Slight Bearish
Long Term - Neutral/Slight Bullish

Note

Bit of a divergence in RSI/MFI on a Daily basis. RSI is showing movement up, but MFI is showing movement down. I don't trade on those TA's directly, but I do like them to confirm what trends are showing.

Note

LoL... I can't stand some of these market news reports
"Larger banks so far unchanged on the day!"
2 minutes into the trading day...... lol

Note

As I said I would, I am short at the zero mark as we moved down on the Michigan expectations report and already cashed out when it got to 6 points. That'll do it for me, I wish everyone the best.

I will be checking into speculative positions at 4:30pm EST to see if the position on the Nasdaq has turned negative at all. My guess is the drop off starts next week in the Nasdaq, although there isn't a lot of economic data to get us there.

I'm certain that Democrats and Republicans will take this debt ceiling to the 11th hour, probably sell of their stocks, watch the market crumble, buy stocks are a premium, and make a deal so they can watch new profits roll in...

Note

We are at the 6hr trendline again, been rough trying to move past this point.

Note

2hr ands 3hr both hit in the same location, 4116 lower low. It bounced off that initially but we are back down at the level. The 30m came in as a lower low as expected also.

The 4hr hasn't signaled yet, but it is low enough that if it does we are below the last downtrend and will be a lower low if it sticks.

Problem after that is the 6hr never hit an uptrend, even if it signaled from a downtrend to a neutral... so there are no more downtrends to hit from the 4hr until the Daily.

Note

I'd like to buy in that this downward movement will stick... but that volume.... time to pick it up if we are going to stay down here.

Note

Teased getting below 4100 on the SPX, (4015ish on ES!), but just couldn't get it done as the volume trading dried up. See what happens at the end here, though if we stay below the 6hr trendline that has been a major support factor, I'd expect some more downside pending.
The ES! is showing this week will end with a Weekly sell signal for trend momentum.
The ESM has indicators that the next week will actually be a Weekly sell signal for trend momentum.
So I'm likely going to continue holding my mostly bearish short term sentiment, especially with most trends calling for at least a little more downside to a 4hr downtrend. I have some caution regarding the movement after the 4hr downtrend though.

How bout that 6E trade though huh?! =)
Haha, I said I thought we could get to 1.08 levels, and here we are. Looking to see if it can lose another .5% or so more.

Note

Nothing big in the speculative positions. Though the numbers are from where we were on Tuesday.
Nasdaq gained some positive
S&P lost some and went more negative
Euro gained (that was when I went short though).

Looks like we head into next week about .6% on the 6E from my target, and a weakened but not destroyed S&P

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