4750 Target met, trends in some conflict now

Updated

So, we did hit that 4750 range, and ended up hitting it within just a few hours of my assessment that was the next area for us to head.

That opens up a few trends to take us lower, specifically the 1hr and 2hr, as seen below in the trends;

Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ES Contract)
30m - 4722 Downtrend (1/8/2024) Lower Low
1Hr - 4757 Uptrend (1/5/2024) Lower High
2Hr - 4757 Uptrend (1/5/2024) Lower High
3Hr - 4808 Downtrend (12/29/2023) Higher Low
4Hr - 4808 Downtrend (12/29/2023) Higher Low
6Hr - 4759 Downtrend (12/20/2023) Higher Low
12Hr - 4762 Uptrend (1/3/2024) Higher Low
Daily - 4378 Uptrend (11/3/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4769 Uptrend (12/11/2023) Higher High

So now the shorter timeframe trends are in some conflict with the longer timeframe trends, and being I capitalized well last week, I am in no rush to get between this fight.

Economic Data;
I could see the public debt today being a big issue, but the major one this week will be CPI data on Thursday, as covered in the video.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to be a concern as well.

My sentiment is;
Shorter Term - Neutral
Short Term - Neutral
Medium Term - Neutral/Bullish
Long Term - Bullish

Safe trading, and remember your risk management.

Note

Wow, came back in to check in after being away all day, and quite the spike upward.
Be warned, this strongly appears to be a short squeeze, and may not last. The volume this far today is very low (currently only 1 million). That is as low as the holiday week (between Christmas and New Years). I'd think a true move up would have a bit more excitement behind it.

Additionally, consumer credit debt went from expected to jump from just under 6 billion to 9 billion... instead it shot up to 23 billion. That should have pushed a bullish push into the USD, but it appears that thus far no one invested into the USD, and instead went for stocks, especially tech stocks, and even more specifically, the NYFANG.

If you were short, sorry for your pain. I may go short here soon, but I'd like to see some weakening in this movement upward.

Note

At the close of yesterday I did go short, but I did not go short on the current ES contract, I went short on ESM24 (June 24) contract as it was at 4853 and I felt comfortable if I had to hold it a bit to watch it go lower.

Being that we already dropped 20 points, I cashed out at the $1000. I don't know I want to hold into the CPI data, as I still am concerned the CPI data will come in below expectations (at least on headline) and could cause a spike upwards as the cheer on rate cuts increases. If it comes in at or above expectations, I'll probably go into a short as price drops. I do agree I think we are overbought, and trends are beginning to conflict more to the potential of a lower side on more timelines (4hr and below is pushing for downward, 6hr and has potential upside).

Note

CPI Data for December in
Headline was .2% higher (going to have to dive into that one)
Core was .1% lower but that is .1% higher than expected

Initial market reaction is negative. I went short at 4824 as we went down. Looking to hold until around 4750 at least and than will evaluate to see if we are heading towards an actual sell, which I would see more as a take profit dip than a meltdown sell off.

Note

So I decided to close out at 4775. Only about a $2500 profit on the trade, but while some of the longer term trends, such as the 6hr are clearing the way down, the shorter term trends are calling for a small bounce. I may go short again if we get above 4800, then hold that until 4750.

Had a message ask why I don't foresee a huge drop... it really has to do with earnings starting next week. I've expected a negative earnings season several times, and it has never happened. As I've discussed in the past, companies have done incredible at lowering expectations during a correction or relatively drop, then beating the lowered bar and ending higher. I don't foresee that ending, and thus I expect the next few weeks to keep us around that 4800 +\- 50 points range. I will be cautiously bullish, perhaps buying some dips, or looking for more weakness in the trends and nit picking and profit selling peaks.

Additionally, I have other areas I think could bring in some profits. Still have my eye on soybean investment, especially since it is hitting an oversold territory and most forecasts expect it to climb briefly over the winter/spring months.

Will likely do a new video tomorrow morning to update the trends after today

Note

Went short again at 4805

SemperTrader

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