ES one to watch
Updated
Whether you're doing the continuous contract or the December contract, lots of technical warning signs here.
We aren't beearish or bullish just yet in the near term--look either for a collapse under the 50dma and a close underneath the rising wedge pattern ES has made on the weekly chart before rolling short or a breakout and defense of the upper trendline of that same wedge to validate the pattern.
Election uncertainty may play a big role in sentiment shifts--a contested election could drive us back to the 200dma or possibly lower if all hopes of any stimulus are crushed as valuations don't support these lofty levels...on the flipside a clear cut winner be it Trump or Biden (or Jo! lol) will probably goose markets higher as the "worst case" scenario is avoided.
We aren't beearish or bullish just yet in the near term--look either for a collapse under the 50dma and a close underneath the rising wedge pattern ES has made on the weekly chart before rolling short or a breakout and defense of the upper trendline of that same wedge to validate the pattern.
Election uncertainty may play a big role in sentiment shifts--a contested election could drive us back to the 200dma or possibly lower if all hopes of any stimulus are crushed as valuations don't support these lofty levels...on the flipside a clear cut winner be it Trump or Biden (or Jo! lol) will probably goose markets higher as the "worst case" scenario is avoided.
Note
Here's the test of the bottom of this rising wedge, defense of this level (which is near the point of control on the volume profile and converges with the 20 and 50dma) will be key. If ES can bounce here than it will be best to continue waiting, but a rejection of this level will be the signal to short.The caveat of course is that this close to election time I'd be weary of entering any trade for much more than day at this point as it's best to give the markets a wide berth in the days immediately before and after Presidential elections.
Trade closed manually
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