Description:
An analysis for the week ahead.
Points of Interest:
Balance Area; Russell $1,600 Supply Area; Stronger Selling; Buyer’s Non-Committal; Market Still In Uptrend.
Technical:
Broad-market equity indices digested prior advances, evidenced by the non-separation of value.
Recapping last week’s action, Monday's higher open on pandemic relief efforts coming from the White House was erased on a liquidation to Friday’s range. Buyers later responded, establishing a v-bottom before resolving the contract adjusted all-time-high, overnight. After investors shrugged off news of simmering geopolitical tensions, Tuesday’s U.S. session gave back all advances, liquidating enough to repair the poor structure below $3,330.
Alongside news of resilient fuel demand, relative strength shifted to the Nasdaq Wednesday, with equity indices squeezing shorts and erasing the low-volume area left behind Tuesday’s liquidation. Thursday’s overnight activity caught up to Wednesday’s divergent delta, drifting lower alongside uninspiring political news. During the U.S. session, the S&P managed to pop higher, to and through the resting liquidity at the $3,375 area, before testing lower and closing in-range, neutral. The session’s narrative carried forward with Friday’s session ending the week in-balance and range.
In light of dull participation, the risks of a pullback have increased. Buyers lack the conviction to follow-through and sellers are beginning to step up on the liquidations that get rid of those weak buyers. The Russell 2000 closed the week off lower after coming to the $1,600 supply area. The Nasdaq, despite regaining relative strength, failed to make a new high, balancing out into week-end.
To see a positive change in tone, there needs to be separation of value beyond the all-time-high. Until then, the potential exists for a fast-moving correction of the poor structure left behind by the emotional, momentum-driven participants.
Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts.
Key Events:
NY Fed Manufacturing; NAHB Housing Market Index; Building Permits; Housing Starts; Initial Claims; Philly Fed Business Index; Leading Index; PMI; Existing Home Sales.
Fundamental:
Senate leaves until September without coronavirus relief deal. bit.ly/3iN4FC2
Coronavirus vaccine won’t become widely available to Americans until 2021. bit.ly/2XRNfw6
U.S. retail sales slow in July; obstacles mount for nascent economic recovery. reut.rs/30XtDsA
Judge rejects a General Motors Company (NYSE: GM) case against Fiat Chrysler Automobiles N.V. (NYSE: FCAU). reut.rs/342xTJa
Fortnite maker sues Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL), Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ: GOOGL). cnn.it/2Ct9Zeq
United States petroleum inventories show a gradual rebalancing. reut.rs/3iJWK8V
Economy not enjoying a V-shape recovery, but is instead on the verge of a W-shape. bit.ly/31Syqun
Trump’s executive orders to shore up the economy will not be sufficient. bit.ly/31Syqun
ARK Invest CEO and CIO recaps recovery, reasons optimistic perspective. bit.ly/2E3PRQC
JOLTS shows far fewer jobs added in than the department's NFP report. bit.ly/2XRNfw6
Market avoids the Great Recession’s calamities, but economy struggling. bit.ly/30ULtwo
Credit quality worsened again as the effects of the pandemic continued to weight. bit.ly/30ULtwo
Trading volumes remain elevated, even as volatility returns to more normal levels. bit.ly/3fUn5zg
Post-election regime should stimulate growth through capital friendly policies. bit.ly/2DRgVTc
New York’s statewide positive test rate has remained at 1% for two months. bit.ly/33QipYN
The new economy stocks drive markets, but recovery won’t be v-shaped. bit.ly/2XWqiYH
The budget deal changes the way financial markets look at the eurozone. bit.ly/2DDgnk5
Producer prices rose by the most since October 2018, following June decline. bit.ly/2DDgnk5
Weak revenue environment will lead to fiscal austerity and higher leverage. bit.ly/3iyHag6
American Express Company (NYSE: AXP) in talks with Kabbage over acquisition. bit.ly/30ONABI
Amazon Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN) relaunches Twitch Prime as Prime Gaming. tcrn.ch/2XMsTVd
Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) announces 5-for-1 stock split on August 31. bit.ly/3kzTnmw
Saudi Aramco sees a recovery in global oil demand, justifying export prices. reut.rs/2XNtPZk
COVID-19 will accelerate supply chain shifts in a more fragmented trade system. bit.ly/2FjpSFD
General Motors Company (NYSE: GM) jumps ship to join startup Stripe. reut.rs/33OO1Oe
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) to produce 1B vaccines by next year. reut.rs/2DSlgFx
Court reverses antitrust ruling against Qualcomm Inc (NASDAQ: QCOM). reut.rs/2XU6SDM
Facebook Inc (NASDAQ: FB) curbs ads by U.S. news publishers with political ties. reut.rs/2DBmWnj
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: OXY) to cut debt before boosting output. reut.rs/2PGr3ka
Boeing Co (NYSE: BA) 737 MAX cancellations rise, deliveries drop as crises drags on. reut.rs/3aiGdpu
U.S.-China trade deal in fine shape, White House’s Kudlow says. reut.rs/33TqRGy
Gold has had its worst day in 7 years, but investors remain bullish. bit.ly/2DDgnk5
The U.S. already is feeling the impacts of ending unemployment benefits. bit.ly/2DDgnk5
Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS), Barclays PLC (NYSE: BCS) bid for GM’s credit card business. reut.rs/3ahsC1A
Microsoft Inc (NASDAQ: MSFT) dual-screen Android phone to arrive September 10. reut.rs/3kEMQqN
Airbnb plans to confidentially file for an IPO in August. reut.rs/30O44Kv
U.S. energy bankruptcy surge continues on credit, oil-price squeeze. reut.rs/33OXhBZ
Fed moves too far from mandate, fine tuning poses increased risks. bit.ly/3fO53P4
Amazon Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN) eyes Sears, J.C. Penney stores for fulfillment. on.wsj.com/2Dz3I1D
One-third of American renters expected to miss their august payment. bloom.bg/30MsKmE
More than a third of Americans wouldn’t take a free and approved COVID vaccine. bit.ly/3kC6fbJ
How did COVID-19 and stabilization policies affect spending, employment. bit.ly/30MsyDH
COVID-19’s impact on commercial jet fuel demand is significant and uneven. bit.ly/3afiIgH
Coronavirus shutdowns reduce consumption, shift energy costs to individuals. on.wsj.com/31F9V3T
U.K.’s faster-than-expected recovery prompts BOE to lower impairments forecast. bit.ly/3gQaUo8
Intercontinental Exchange Inc’s (NYSE: ICE) Ellie Mae acquisition is credit negative. bit.ly/3gQaUo8
U.S. loan to Eastman Kodak Co (NYSE: KODK) won’t proceed if allegations remain. reut.rs/3gNM9ZN
Shares of major airlines rose on increases in the U.S. TSA screening numbers. reut.rs/3fOtkob
Federal Reserve announces post-stress test capital ratios for large banks. reut.rs/2XNzeQ6
Sentiment: 30.3% Bullish, 27.8% Neutral, 42.1% Bearish as of 8/12/2020. bit.ly/330VhEp
Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 5,235,179,076 as of 8/14/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Dark Pool Index: (Trending Higher) 43% as of 8/14/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Product Snapshot:
S&P 500 (ES):
SPY 
SPX
Nasdaq 100 (NQ):
QQQ 
NDX
Russell 2000 (RTY):
IWM 
RUT
Gold (GC):
XAUUSD 
XAU GLD 
GDX
Crude Oil (CL):
USO DBO USL 
USOIL
Treasury Bonds (ZB):
TLT
Disclaimer:
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me.
In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
An analysis for the week ahead.
Points of Interest:
Balance Area; Russell $1,600 Supply Area; Stronger Selling; Buyer’s Non-Committal; Market Still In Uptrend.
Technical:
Broad-market equity indices digested prior advances, evidenced by the non-separation of value.
Recapping last week’s action, Monday's higher open on pandemic relief efforts coming from the White House was erased on a liquidation to Friday’s range. Buyers later responded, establishing a v-bottom before resolving the contract adjusted all-time-high, overnight. After investors shrugged off news of simmering geopolitical tensions, Tuesday’s U.S. session gave back all advances, liquidating enough to repair the poor structure below $3,330.
Alongside news of resilient fuel demand, relative strength shifted to the Nasdaq Wednesday, with equity indices squeezing shorts and erasing the low-volume area left behind Tuesday’s liquidation. Thursday’s overnight activity caught up to Wednesday’s divergent delta, drifting lower alongside uninspiring political news. During the U.S. session, the S&P managed to pop higher, to and through the resting liquidity at the $3,375 area, before testing lower and closing in-range, neutral. The session’s narrative carried forward with Friday’s session ending the week in-balance and range.
In light of dull participation, the risks of a pullback have increased. Buyers lack the conviction to follow-through and sellers are beginning to step up on the liquidations that get rid of those weak buyers. The Russell 2000 closed the week off lower after coming to the $1,600 supply area. The Nasdaq, despite regaining relative strength, failed to make a new high, balancing out into week-end.
To see a positive change in tone, there needs to be separation of value beyond the all-time-high. Until then, the potential exists for a fast-moving correction of the poor structure left behind by the emotional, momentum-driven participants.
Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts.
Key Events:
NY Fed Manufacturing; NAHB Housing Market Index; Building Permits; Housing Starts; Initial Claims; Philly Fed Business Index; Leading Index; PMI; Existing Home Sales.
Fundamental:
Senate leaves until September without coronavirus relief deal. bit.ly/3iN4FC2
Coronavirus vaccine won’t become widely available to Americans until 2021. bit.ly/2XRNfw6
U.S. retail sales slow in July; obstacles mount for nascent economic recovery. reut.rs/30XtDsA
Judge rejects a General Motors Company (NYSE: GM) case against Fiat Chrysler Automobiles N.V. (NYSE: FCAU). reut.rs/342xTJa
Fortnite maker sues Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL), Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ: GOOGL). cnn.it/2Ct9Zeq
United States petroleum inventories show a gradual rebalancing. reut.rs/3iJWK8V
Economy not enjoying a V-shape recovery, but is instead on the verge of a W-shape. bit.ly/31Syqun
Trump’s executive orders to shore up the economy will not be sufficient. bit.ly/31Syqun
ARK Invest CEO and CIO recaps recovery, reasons optimistic perspective. bit.ly/2E3PRQC
JOLTS shows far fewer jobs added in than the department's NFP report. bit.ly/2XRNfw6
Market avoids the Great Recession’s calamities, but economy struggling. bit.ly/30ULtwo
Credit quality worsened again as the effects of the pandemic continued to weight. bit.ly/30ULtwo
Trading volumes remain elevated, even as volatility returns to more normal levels. bit.ly/3fUn5zg
Post-election regime should stimulate growth through capital friendly policies. bit.ly/2DRgVTc
New York’s statewide positive test rate has remained at 1% for two months. bit.ly/33QipYN
The new economy stocks drive markets, but recovery won’t be v-shaped. bit.ly/2XWqiYH
The budget deal changes the way financial markets look at the eurozone. bit.ly/2DDgnk5
Producer prices rose by the most since October 2018, following June decline. bit.ly/2DDgnk5
Weak revenue environment will lead to fiscal austerity and higher leverage. bit.ly/3iyHag6
American Express Company (NYSE: AXP) in talks with Kabbage over acquisition. bit.ly/30ONABI
Amazon Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN) relaunches Twitch Prime as Prime Gaming. tcrn.ch/2XMsTVd
Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) announces 5-for-1 stock split on August 31. bit.ly/3kzTnmw
Saudi Aramco sees a recovery in global oil demand, justifying export prices. reut.rs/2XNtPZk
COVID-19 will accelerate supply chain shifts in a more fragmented trade system. bit.ly/2FjpSFD
General Motors Company (NYSE: GM) jumps ship to join startup Stripe. reut.rs/33OO1Oe
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) to produce 1B vaccines by next year. reut.rs/2DSlgFx
Court reverses antitrust ruling against Qualcomm Inc (NASDAQ: QCOM). reut.rs/2XU6SDM
Facebook Inc (NASDAQ: FB) curbs ads by U.S. news publishers with political ties. reut.rs/2DBmWnj
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: OXY) to cut debt before boosting output. reut.rs/2PGr3ka
Boeing Co (NYSE: BA) 737 MAX cancellations rise, deliveries drop as crises drags on. reut.rs/3aiGdpu
U.S.-China trade deal in fine shape, White House’s Kudlow says. reut.rs/33TqRGy
Gold has had its worst day in 7 years, but investors remain bullish. bit.ly/2DDgnk5
The U.S. already is feeling the impacts of ending unemployment benefits. bit.ly/2DDgnk5
Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS), Barclays PLC (NYSE: BCS) bid for GM’s credit card business. reut.rs/3ahsC1A
Microsoft Inc (NASDAQ: MSFT) dual-screen Android phone to arrive September 10. reut.rs/3kEMQqN
Airbnb plans to confidentially file for an IPO in August. reut.rs/30O44Kv
U.S. energy bankruptcy surge continues on credit, oil-price squeeze. reut.rs/33OXhBZ
Fed moves too far from mandate, fine tuning poses increased risks. bit.ly/3fO53P4
Amazon Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN) eyes Sears, J.C. Penney stores for fulfillment. on.wsj.com/2Dz3I1D
One-third of American renters expected to miss their august payment. bloom.bg/30MsKmE
More than a third of Americans wouldn’t take a free and approved COVID vaccine. bit.ly/3kC6fbJ
How did COVID-19 and stabilization policies affect spending, employment. bit.ly/30MsyDH
COVID-19’s impact on commercial jet fuel demand is significant and uneven. bit.ly/3afiIgH
Coronavirus shutdowns reduce consumption, shift energy costs to individuals. on.wsj.com/31F9V3T
U.K.’s faster-than-expected recovery prompts BOE to lower impairments forecast. bit.ly/3gQaUo8
Intercontinental Exchange Inc’s (NYSE: ICE) Ellie Mae acquisition is credit negative. bit.ly/3gQaUo8
U.S. loan to Eastman Kodak Co (NYSE: KODK) won’t proceed if allegations remain. reut.rs/3gNM9ZN
Shares of major airlines rose on increases in the U.S. TSA screening numbers. reut.rs/3fOtkob
Federal Reserve announces post-stress test capital ratios for large banks. reut.rs/2XNzeQ6
Sentiment: 30.3% Bullish, 27.8% Neutral, 42.1% Bearish as of 8/12/2020. bit.ly/330VhEp
Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 5,235,179,076 as of 8/14/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Dark Pool Index: (Trending Higher) 43% as of 8/14/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Product Snapshot:
S&P 500 (ES):
SPY SPXNasdaq 100 (NQ):
QQQ NDXRussell 2000 (RTY):
IWM RUTGold (GC):
XAUUSD XAU GLD GDXCrude Oil (CL):
USO DBO USL USOILTreasury Bonds (ZB):
TLTDisclaimer:
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me.
In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
Note
Dark Pool Index is Trending Lower*, not higher. My apologies.
This page is where we look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. Feel free to comment if you have questions, concerns, or suggestions. Everyone can improve, so speak up if you see something wrong!
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
This page is where we look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. Feel free to comment if you have questions, concerns, or suggestions. Everyone can improve, so speak up if you see something wrong!
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.