While equity markets have rebounded from their low point in early April, this week, straddling the end of April and the beginning of May, sees the release of top-tier fundamental data.
The trade war is the new dominant fundamental factor. But the market is most interested in the impact on US inflation and the US labor market.
The US PCE inflation report on Wednesday April 30 and the NFP report on Friday May 2 should therefore be kept under review.
Only the path of trade diplomacy can keep the trajectory of US disinflation intact and thus enable the Federal Reserve to resume cutting its federal funds rate for a sound reason (i.e. inflation trending towards 2% and a stable unemployment rate of around 4% of the working population). This resumption of the Fed funds rate cut is essential to validate the S&P500's major low on the 4800 point support.
Here are 4 reasons why we believe the trade war is unlikely to cause a second wave of inflation. The PCE index on Wednesday April 30 should see a resumption of the decline in the nominal inflation rate towards 2%.
Reason 1: The first all-out trade war between China and the USA between 2017 and 2019 did not cause an inflationary wave, and even ended with a trade agreement between China and the USA in December 2019 (Phase One Trade Deal)
Reason 2: The trade war directly concerns agricultural products and manufactured goods, but no services are directly affected. Services account for 70% of the calculation of US inflation rates, and the USA is a service economy accounting for 80% of its GDP.
Reason 3: With the risk of a global economic slowdown against the backdrop of the trade war, the price of oil has plummeted on the stock market, and this will have a strong downward impact on the nominal inflation rate, with a direct + indirect effect estimated at 10% in the calculation of inflation rates.
Reason 4: Disinflation in the real estate sector is structural, accounting for 30% of the inflation calculation, and has no connection with the trade war.
The NFP report on Friday May 2 will enable us to assess whether or not the trade war has already begun to damage the US labor market. This is the ultimate barometer for assessing the likelihood of an economic recession.
CONCLUSION: this week, we'll be keeping a very close eye on US PCE inflation, the NFP report and, of course, all the news surrounding trade diplomacy and the Trump/Powell relationship (ahead of the FED's decision on Wednesday May 7).
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
The trade war is the new dominant fundamental factor. But the market is most interested in the impact on US inflation and the US labor market.
The US PCE inflation report on Wednesday April 30 and the NFP report on Friday May 2 should therefore be kept under review.
Only the path of trade diplomacy can keep the trajectory of US disinflation intact and thus enable the Federal Reserve to resume cutting its federal funds rate for a sound reason (i.e. inflation trending towards 2% and a stable unemployment rate of around 4% of the working population). This resumption of the Fed funds rate cut is essential to validate the S&P500's major low on the 4800 point support.
Here are 4 reasons why we believe the trade war is unlikely to cause a second wave of inflation. The PCE index on Wednesday April 30 should see a resumption of the decline in the nominal inflation rate towards 2%.
Reason 1: The first all-out trade war between China and the USA between 2017 and 2019 did not cause an inflationary wave, and even ended with a trade agreement between China and the USA in December 2019 (Phase One Trade Deal)
Reason 2: The trade war directly concerns agricultural products and manufactured goods, but no services are directly affected. Services account for 70% of the calculation of US inflation rates, and the USA is a service economy accounting for 80% of its GDP.
Reason 3: With the risk of a global economic slowdown against the backdrop of the trade war, the price of oil has plummeted on the stock market, and this will have a strong downward impact on the nominal inflation rate, with a direct + indirect effect estimated at 10% in the calculation of inflation rates.
Reason 4: Disinflation in the real estate sector is structural, accounting for 30% of the inflation calculation, and has no connection with the trade war.
The NFP report on Friday May 2 will enable us to assess whether or not the trade war has already begun to damage the US labor market. This is the ultimate barometer for assessing the likelihood of an economic recession.
CONCLUSION: this week, we'll be keeping a very close eye on US PCE inflation, the NFP report and, of course, all the news surrounding trade diplomacy and the Trump/Powell relationship (ahead of the FED's decision on Wednesday May 7).
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
This content is written by Vincent Ganne for Swissquote.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
This content is written by Vincent Ganne for Swissquote.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.