ES1! As we discussed in last week’s TradingView blog, the ES futures are currently undergoing a 10% correction. You can access the full context through the link here.
Rollover Notice:
Today marks the rollover of ES futures to the June 2025 contract. The rollover adjustment using Friday’s settlement prices for ESH2025 and ESM2025 is +52.25. To map out the new levels for ESM2025, simply add +52.25 to the levels on ESH2025.
Note: TradingView will roll over the continuous ES1! chart on Tuesday, March 18, 2025.
Key Events This Week: This week, all eyes will be on the FOMC rate decision, FOMC press conference, and the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which includes the Fed’s dot plot, inflation expectations, and growth forecasts for the next two years. This release will set the tone for market movements, at least until the clarity of the looming reciprocal tariffs deadline on April 2, 2025.
Key Levels to Watch:
• Bullish LIS / Yearly Open 2025: 5,949.25
• Key Level to Reclaim: 5,795 - 5,805
• Resistance Zone: 5,704.50 - 5,719.75
• Bearish LIS / Mid Range 2024: 5,574.50
• 2024-YTD mCVAL: 5,449.25
• 2022 CVAH: 5,280.25
Market Scenarios:
Scenario 1: Fed Support ("Fed Put")
The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady this week. However, markets are forward-looking, so the key focus will be on the updated SEP forecast and the Fed’s press conference. A dovish stance and flexibility to support the US economy, including rate cut expectations moving to the May/June meetings, will drive sentiment. This would imply markets pricing in more rate cuts throughout 2025. The CME Fedwatch tool is a useful resource for tracking Fed fund probabilities and comparing these with the dot plot projections.
Scenario 2: Trade War 2.0
If the Fed remains in a "wait and see" mode, maintaining a restrictive stance while uncertainties surrounding Trade War 2.0 persist, markets may face heightened volatility. The combination of a restrictive Fed policy and geopolitical tensions could act as a double whammy for markets.
EdgeClear
P: 773.832.8320 | TF: 844-TRADE20
Derivatives trading involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views expressed are opinions, not financial advice.
P: 773.832.8320 | TF: 844-TRADE20
Derivatives trading involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views expressed are opinions, not financial advice.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
EdgeClear
P: 773.832.8320 | TF: 844-TRADE20
Derivatives trading involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views expressed are opinions, not financial advice.
P: 773.832.8320 | TF: 844-TRADE20
Derivatives trading involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views expressed are opinions, not financial advice.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.