Weekend Update: ES Rallies furthering the pattern complexity
ES Futures have been in a tight range since Thursday December 22nd of last year when it completed its initial a-wave down from the 4180 high. The overlapping price action has given me a fit to count. What started out as an expectation of a standard retracement in b of B, eventually turned into the expectation of a triangle, which is now as best as I can ascertain, a triple zig zag.
Although the above pattern featured below in the micro chart is very similar to a diagonal, it cannot be one, because diagonals are motive waves.
Motive waves are trend directional in nature, and this pattern still appears corrective. At the start of Friday’s trading day, I was expecting lower, but knew I was not going to be putting on a trade that day. As my longer-term followers are used to hearing from me price has to come to me when putting on a trade. It is only when price is coming to me that I know I’m dialed into where the Elliott wave analysis is forecasting. Therefore, I have the largest chance of making a profit.
So, my plan is to continue to wait until this consolidation is clearly over.
With respect to the current pattern, there’s only so many interpretations that can be made. Being a B-wave, it is expected to potentially become complex and it is this complexity that has me pulling me back from trading. As of right now I have 3 waves up that appear impulsive in nature. 3938.25 is the 1.0 extension and I would expect some sort of reaction at that level. To conclude there would make sense of this whole mess. Whether this pattern completes there or not is yet to be determined. However, I stand by previous assertions that the consolidation pattern we have been experiencing for the last almost 2 weeks in not a terribly bullish pattern. Aside from all the rallies and declines within the last 2 weeks...price has not moved much at all.
The standard retracement area for this b-wave originally was as high as 3985-4030. I stopped looking for price to reach those levels due to the overlap. I remain of the same opinion while writing my weekend update...but I will also remain open minded until I get clarity in the pattern.
In conclusion, let's see if price can muster the strength to get to 3938.25 and the reaction afterwards.
Best to all,
Chris
Although the above pattern featured below in the micro chart is very similar to a diagonal, it cannot be one, because diagonals are motive waves.
Motive waves are trend directional in nature, and this pattern still appears corrective. At the start of Friday’s trading day, I was expecting lower, but knew I was not going to be putting on a trade that day. As my longer-term followers are used to hearing from me price has to come to me when putting on a trade. It is only when price is coming to me that I know I’m dialed into where the Elliott wave analysis is forecasting. Therefore, I have the largest chance of making a profit.
So, my plan is to continue to wait until this consolidation is clearly over.
With respect to the current pattern, there’s only so many interpretations that can be made. Being a B-wave, it is expected to potentially become complex and it is this complexity that has me pulling me back from trading. As of right now I have 3 waves up that appear impulsive in nature. 3938.25 is the 1.0 extension and I would expect some sort of reaction at that level. To conclude there would make sense of this whole mess. Whether this pattern completes there or not is yet to be determined. However, I stand by previous assertions that the consolidation pattern we have been experiencing for the last almost 2 weeks in not a terribly bullish pattern. Aside from all the rallies and declines within the last 2 weeks...price has not moved much at all.
The standard retracement area for this b-wave originally was as high as 3985-4030. I stopped looking for price to reach those levels due to the overlap. I remain of the same opinion while writing my weekend update...but I will also remain open minded until I get clarity in the pattern.
In conclusion, let's see if price can muster the strength to get to 3938.25 and the reaction afterwards.
Best to all,
Chris
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