Long

ES: DO OR DIE!

The SP500 had quite the negative intraday price action today, up until we had a strong volume supported bounce at the Value Area Low of the current range, in confluence with the swing failure pattern of the previous wick low, as well as the 618 fibonacci level from the low to the high of the trump pump.

I am watching this do or die zone as the key area where the news fundamentally changed when Trump enacted a 90 day pause. Should we start getting acceptance into this zone, I would view that as extremely bearish for the reason that the market is reclaiming lower levels despite positive Trump news.

Lets see how it plays out!

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Perfect bounce

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If this is the recovery bounce, ideally I would like to see the confirmation of a reversal by holding the uptrend VWAP

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Nasdaq is currently fighting the VWAP, while the ES is coming into resistance and forming a bearish wedge.

My ideal scenario involves a drop into the POC, anchored VWAP, and the gap zone for the reversal.

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Didn't quite get the deeper pullback I was hoping for, but nonetheless we had a bounce from the 618 zone which I should have been more aware of!

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Looking back at my chart, something i wanna share that was a change of data.. Based on my strategy, which revolves mostly around volume analysis and range profiles, combined with elliot wave theory, im basically seeing that the low could be in, and this was a textbook elliot wave correction where price just out of coincidence bounces at the exact trend based fib zones (618 - 1 extensions) . Not only that , the volume profile in our lower range, the most traded zone (blue line) moved all the way up to the s/r flip breakout zone. Part of me is still somewhat bearish and doubtful that such a strong resistance could be so easily broken. But on the other side, I am also mid-long term bullish, thinking that this breakout zone would be key for bulls to defend. If we get a drop into there, and hold, or a trap like 2 weeks ago, i think i would be confident enough to believe that new all time highs are coming quite fast

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Where my next major long trade zone will be. Several zones of confluence including VWAP, POC, and 618 retracement of this current impulse higher

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Market is quite strong, looking towards the higher levels

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My overall projection for the next wave

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Going to revamp my overall count as I realized it is a bit extended for a broader picture. However, on the shorter term I would like to see something like this ideally.

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Going exactly as planned

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How this would look on the SPY

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5 count impulse, we are almost at the target

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Currently finding resistance at approx. 6000. Lets see if the market can blast through it tomorrow as we have unemployment data

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First target zone hit! I have taken a short hedge trade here

afurs1

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afurs1