Trends bring in key levels to watch

So while I didn't get my first entry at 4160, I ended up entering back in where I left off at 4125. Sucks to lose out on that almost $2000, but that is the way of risk management.

My key level to watch is where/if this 12hr bar finalizes by 13:00 EST. The last 12hr downtrend was 4060. So if I want to continue following through with this trade, I'd like to see the 12hr settle below 4060. If it doesn't, and I sense the potential of a mini rally, I very well might just cash out my trade and take profit and continue next week once I see how Friday ends.

Additionally, I'm yet again in the 6E contract. I'm currently up about $250 on a short, and continue to believe that we will have a .03 drop at least to around 1.08 because of how excessively over heated that market is.

Trends into today;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4116 Downtrend (5/3/2023) Lower Low
1Hr - 4167 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Higher Low
2Hr - 4118 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Lower Low
3Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Lower Low
4Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Lower Low
6Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Higher Low
12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High
Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low

The Long Position;
If we struggle to make new lows than the under 4080 level could be a great entry point to another rally. Additionally, a strong push up above 4100 at the open could signal the 4100 support level is stronger than it currently appears. I can't say I feel confident still at this point going into a Long position.

The Short Position;
I'm in the short position from 4125. If I was looking for an entry at this point, I'd probably look for a strong move past 4090, or even just wait and see how things are at 13:00. I think this level at 4090 is difficult, and remember it is the current uptrend point of the 12hr timeframe to begin with. So I'd use caution on an entry level just above 4090 as I think the 4090 level +\- 10 is a strong support level until we break well beneath it.

Economic Data;
ECB Rates are today here shortly. Last time that ended up impacting the US Market more than the FOMC rate decision did.
Additionally, the jobs data is in today. I still think people are burnt out on jobs data and overlooking it at this point, but we might have had a wake up call by Powell on the importance of this data.

Earnings;
Apple is today, though it will be after the close. This is, if memory serves, the last major company of the top 5 to report. Keep in mind that all the other well overvalued top 5 companies did well and rallied even with their excessive valuation, so this one could as well.

My sentiment into today;
Shorter Term - Bearish
Short Term - Bearish
Medium Term - Neutral/Bearish
Long Term - Neutral

My main focus is on holding this trade until 13:00 EST and then deciding how I want to proceed.

Safe trading, and remember your risk management

Note

Not the biggest data point, but challenger job cuts are in, they are roughly half what they were previously. Basically the job market remains robust.

Note

ECB raised rates as expected, so far has caused a decent drop in the 6E, so capitalize there.

As for our US Data;
Exports/Imports mostly on par with estimates
jobless claims increased but was about in line with expectations
Nonfarm productivity went down, and moreso than expected
Unit labor cost went up, and higher than expected

That unit labor cost things really has some concern there. Rising issues of potential inflation there, especially with productivity going down and labor costs going up

Note

ECB Legarde basically is stating they are NOT pausing and look to continue to raise rates

Note

biggest 30m volume open in quite some time. As far as I can see April 14th is the last time as far as I can tell that had an open like this.

Note

Almost there... 4060 is in sight. Still over 2 1/2 hours to hit it and hold it though

Note

Holding this level if we hit 4060 is going to be a battle against macro economics vs technical indicators. Many of your indicators are hitting into oversold. RSI and MFI on multiple timeframes are showing oversold status. Thinking we may have to go meltdown or rally at this point.

If you bring up a volume profile, we pretty much have a gap here until 4000. So likely either back up to 4100 or down to 4000 rather quickly here. I'm still holding for my 13:00 EST price level and 12hr downtrend level

Note

I'll come in and do an update later. This trade is profitable enough I just have to manage it now. Going to go workout and get some things done. Best of luck everyone

Note

Looking like so close, but yet so far. I got the alert we made a new low a bit ago and was hoping we'd sink lower, but we bounced right off. Only 20 minutes left in this bar, looking like it will potentially be a higher low... I'll be proceeding with caution.

Note

Looks like a higher low at 4083. Actually almost identical to the previous slope of the higher high uptrend for the 12hr, just about 20 points lower. Haven't cashed out just yet, but I expect a potential rally back above 4100 in the next day or so.

In fact, if we had a rally back up to around 4150, it would paint a very noticeable head and shoulders pattern.

Note

After tinkering here for some time, I've decided to cash out at 4085. Was hoping for a dip below 4080, but I think at this point I'll just take profit.

Note

Volume really died off throughout the day yet again. I'm just surprised the market has been so low volume for so long now. Wasn't awful today and was higher than recent trading days, but since mid March we've yet to see any real spike on volume.

Note

Apple earnings are in.
EPS has beaten expectations
They announced another 90 billion buyback.
I am getting mixed messages on the revenue. Some are saying it beat slightly, but I've seen some saying it was a 2 billion miss.
It initially popped pretty well, but the gain has mostly fizzled at this point going into the final close.
They have a Earnings call at 5pm EST. I don't trade Apple, but I am interested in how they expect the macro economic conditions to cause issues, if any.

SemperTrader

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.

SemperTrader