So we spiked up briefly but then got the 30m downtrend yesterday just below where we started. While it is only one trend, and we've managed to keep below the trendline associated with it, the move lessens the promise of an easy and safe entry point at 4185, as the 30m could attempt to move the market up on it's own.
I'll most likely put a profit stop now on the trade, or one with minimal loss, depending on how we looked above 4181. Luckily, even if I have to take a small loss, currently my 6E trade has garnered me about
700, and I could use that to offset some risk on my main focus of the ES.
Trends into today;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4179 Downtrend (5/1/2023) Higher Low
1Hr - 4107 Uptrend (4/27/2023) Lower High
2Hr - 4127 Uptrend (4/27/2023) Lower High
3Hr - 4154 Uptrend (4/27/2023) Higher High
4Hr - 4158 Uptrend (4/27/2023) Lower High
6Hr - 4185 Uptrend (4/28/2023) Higher High
12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High
Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
The Long Position;
If you believe the market is set to head higher, this is the likely entry point here, with an exit point at the 30m uptrend which at this point would likely be around 4210ish.
The Short Position;
4179 was the support level shown by the 30m downtrend, we have not really allowed it to buoy us yet, so any return to that level could be a potential entry point. That said, If I wasn't already in a Short position, I'd probably be patiently waiting for a good entry point at the risk of losing out on a small leg down over today.
Economic Data;
JOLTs job data today. I've mixed feelings on how impactful that data really is.
Earnings;
AMD, Pfizer, and Starbucks are today. AMD especially on any guidance that might show weakness in Tech, and Starbucks to show any weakness in the consumer.
My sentiment into today;
Shorter Term - Neutral
Short Term - Bearish/Neutral
Medium Term - Neutral/Slight Bearish
Long Term - Still just kinda Neutral
Overall, I still think that overall many of the S&P companies are hurting, and this rise was on the backs of the Top 10 companies, which are then sitting and excessively high valuation levels. A leg down, even halfway, would show me that some room is being made for more potential growth as investment could better be spread across the S&P 500 and remove some of the bearish sentiment in the market.
Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan.
I'll most likely put a profit stop now on the trade, or one with minimal loss, depending on how we looked above 4181. Luckily, even if I have to take a small loss, currently my 6E trade has garnered me about
700, and I could use that to offset some risk on my main focus of the ES.Trends into today;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4179 Downtrend (5/1/2023) Higher Low
1Hr - 4107 Uptrend (4/27/2023) Lower High
2Hr - 4127 Uptrend (4/27/2023) Lower High
3Hr - 4154 Uptrend (4/27/2023) Higher High
4Hr - 4158 Uptrend (4/27/2023) Lower High
6Hr - 4185 Uptrend (4/28/2023) Higher High
12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High
Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
The Long Position;
If you believe the market is set to head higher, this is the likely entry point here, with an exit point at the 30m uptrend which at this point would likely be around 4210ish.
The Short Position;
4179 was the support level shown by the 30m downtrend, we have not really allowed it to buoy us yet, so any return to that level could be a potential entry point. That said, If I wasn't already in a Short position, I'd probably be patiently waiting for a good entry point at the risk of losing out on a small leg down over today.
Economic Data;
JOLTs job data today. I've mixed feelings on how impactful that data really is.
Earnings;
AMD, Pfizer, and Starbucks are today. AMD especially on any guidance that might show weakness in Tech, and Starbucks to show any weakness in the consumer.
My sentiment into today;
Shorter Term - Neutral
Short Term - Bearish/Neutral
Medium Term - Neutral/Slight Bearish
Long Term - Still just kinda Neutral
Overall, I still think that overall many of the S&P companies are hurting, and this rise was on the backs of the Top 10 companies, which are then sitting and excessively high valuation levels. A leg down, even halfway, would show me that some room is being made for more potential growth as investment could better be spread across the S&P 500 and remove some of the bearish sentiment in the market.
Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan.
Note
So, with this movement down, we have a higher low 1hr to match the 30m... but...with the level of falling over the remainder timeline, we have lower lows (IF we stay down here) on the 2hr/3hr/4hr so far.
The 6hr isn't signaling yet, and would need to signal when it does, below 4119 to be a lower low. Certainly an uptick in volume, hoping this this movement with volume included continues holding and following through to the downside, all the way back down to around 4000.
Note
With my 6E move adding into the current ES move, I'm well over my 
2500 goal (I'm at around $3500). Being that tomorrow is a Fed Day, I may bounce out here and cash out, which will allow me to watch without worry the move into the FOMC rate decision and "forward guidance" (I expect the forward guidance to include little of any guidance going forward and lot's of ambiguity).Note
I don't know why the word weekly turned into HKEX:2500... but it should just say... week ly (maybe if I separate it hah)Note
6hr is beginning to signal here at 4131. Would have to stay below it until 13:00 EST. So... below 4131 but above 4119 will be a higher low, below 4119 will be a lower low, and above 4131 it won't signal this bar, and will have another 6 hours to than signal lower potentially.Note
I did cash out my 6E move as it approached neutral. Really was hoping to see that movement down continue. Might short again at the end of the day if the sell signal persists and we end higher.Note
There has not been this much volume in the market since March 22nd. Few more minutes remain, will be interested to see where we end. Definitely a sentiment shift in the market to buy here and a clear support zone... if it breaks I would expect a retrace at least to 4080 again.Note
I cashed out and may remain out tomorrow depending on how it goes. Trends ended with 2hr/3hr/4hr lower low, 6hr is a higher low. I'd need to see a move below the 6hr with purpose to feel we are heading to a 12hrNote
The high volume trading stopped at 11:55 EST, that is also when the rally started and took us about 30 points up. I don't see this rally up holding based on the volume and price action, but we will see overnight I guess and how things close here in a few minutes.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.