So with the 6hr and 12hr both being a higher low, I'd expect at this point for us to at least head up and catch the 1hr violated trend. We've already hit the 30m (lower high) this morning. The 1hr is going to be a tricky trend, as the last uptrend we had was actually low at 4107, so there is the potential it will be a higher high and therefore not provide much guidance.
This is likely one of those days I may just sit out and observe. If we have a significant dip, and then rally back up, we could absolutely see a 1hr uptrend lower than 4107, but if this unhindered movement up continues, it will likely provide us a the higher high 1hr, and then we look to the 2hr which currently has us heading down. All in all, if we pushed higher I think we would end up maxing out our trends fairly quickly and just be heading back down soon after, so overall I'm fairly neutral right now.
Trends into today;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4100 Uptrend (5/5/2023) Lower High
1Hr - 4167 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Higher Low
2Hr - 4118 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Lower Low
3Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Lower Low
4Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Lower Low
6Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Higher Low
12Hr - 4083 Downtrend (5/4/2023) Higher Low
Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
The Long Position;
A move down to that acquires a 30m downtrend could very well be an entry point, as I that would max us in downtrends except the Daily, and I don't see us jumping from 30m to Daily without assistance from a higher timeframe.
The Short Position;
A strong push back below 4100 (the 30m lower high) could signal at least a return to 4080ish and has the potential for more movement down.
Not sure I like either move at this point as they are both likely short trades with too much risk.
Economic Data;
Unemployment, Payrolls, and Wages... oh my! Honestly not sure it will move the market like it should during an Earnings week.
Earnings;
The residual of Apple's earnings will play out today. I think this is becoming a major issue that much of the market is faltering and being propped up by mainly the Big 5 companies. They are sitting at 22x valuation while most of the rest of the market is around 17x-18x valuation. Seems to thought is, if we can't trust our money in the banks, just toss it into Microsoft, Google, Apple, etc.
My sentiment overall;
Shorter Term - Neutral
Short Term - Neutral
Medium Term - Mmmm... Neutral/Slight Bearish
Long Term - Neutral/Slightly... Bullish?
It is hard for me to expect a continued sell off with such pathetic volume in the down days to match the pathetic volume of the up days.
Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan!
This is likely one of those days I may just sit out and observe. If we have a significant dip, and then rally back up, we could absolutely see a 1hr uptrend lower than 4107, but if this unhindered movement up continues, it will likely provide us a the higher high 1hr, and then we look to the 2hr which currently has us heading down. All in all, if we pushed higher I think we would end up maxing out our trends fairly quickly and just be heading back down soon after, so overall I'm fairly neutral right now.
Trends into today;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4100 Uptrend (5/5/2023) Lower High
1Hr - 4167 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Higher Low
2Hr - 4118 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Lower Low
3Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Lower Low
4Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Lower Low
6Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Higher Low
12Hr - 4083 Downtrend (5/4/2023) Higher Low
Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
The Long Position;
A move down to that acquires a 30m downtrend could very well be an entry point, as I that would max us in downtrends except the Daily, and I don't see us jumping from 30m to Daily without assistance from a higher timeframe.
The Short Position;
A strong push back below 4100 (the 30m lower high) could signal at least a return to 4080ish and has the potential for more movement down.
Not sure I like either move at this point as they are both likely short trades with too much risk.
Economic Data;
Unemployment, Payrolls, and Wages... oh my! Honestly not sure it will move the market like it should during an Earnings week.
Earnings;
The residual of Apple's earnings will play out today. I think this is becoming a major issue that much of the market is faltering and being propped up by mainly the Big 5 companies. They are sitting at 22x valuation while most of the rest of the market is around 17x-18x valuation. Seems to thought is, if we can't trust our money in the banks, just toss it into Microsoft, Google, Apple, etc.
My sentiment overall;
Shorter Term - Neutral
Short Term - Neutral
Medium Term - Mmmm... Neutral/Slight Bearish
Long Term - Neutral/Slightly... Bullish?
It is hard for me to expect a continued sell off with such pathetic volume in the down days to match the pathetic volume of the up days.
Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan!
Note
Yikes... Massive surprise upside across the board.Unemployment came in better than expected at 3.4
Wages went up a surprising .5%
Payrolls went up 240k, 80k over expectations
Basically, job market is robust, perhaps too much so, and is creeping wages back up which could further inflationary risks, thus this SHOULD put to rest the "Rate cuts by June" crap that has been brought on.
I am short 4106
Note
My 6E trade just popped hard up almost $500 for today also, sitting at $1200 already on the trade.Note
I've ZERO idea why we are coming back up. May end up eating a loss here.Note
I popped out at 4105. I'll wait until I see this upward movement fizzle. We should absolutely see these rate cuts knocked out of the market in treasuries today, looking to see if it causes a sink in stocksNote
Alright, I think I'm just gonna close up shop today. Not even a SHRED of downward momentum starting just yet. Not how I saw the day going. 1hr is going to be significantly higher high at this point, and the 2hr hasn't hit yet, so that would also be a higher high if it keeps this up. Putting lower lows and higher highs all across the timeframes.Not a good time to be trading on my trading strategy
Note
2hr higher high has struck now also. Waiting on the 3hr here. Glad I sat out, I'd probably have been trying to go short and either lost or been getting stopped out. I thought for a brief moment when we dipped below 4130 it would keep going, but nope, heading up to potentially make even higher highs for the day.I'm guessing that pending Recession was more concerning than ongoing inflation.
Note
Went short at 4162. This is just a dumb rally, but ultimately I will expect the 30m to correct itself and than see if it drops moreNote
I have cashed that trade out for a small gain of just over $500... it was made entirely on emotional irritation of the market and didn't involve sound judgement and math. I already made a lot of money this week, silly to go into a trade I haven't fully analyzed
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.