Levels to Watch :
Resistance 4508.75-02.50 ? Key Resistance 4532.50-24.25-19
Targets if Over 4548.75-43.75 // 4570.62.50
Support Prev Day Low 4497.25-94.75-90 ? Key Support 4487.25-79.75
Targets if Under VAH, 4465.25-60.25 // 4449.75-45-34.75 ( Needs to break/hold for ANY continuation ) // 4422.75-18.75 // 4403-4392.25
Range Edge 4375.75-4359.50
Last Week :
Thursday/Friday after the contract roll we ended up in key bigger time frame Range Edge area at 4508-25, we consolidated around it, held above 4508-02 which brought more buying to give us a push and hold over 4532-24 Resistance midweek. From there market was able to take out 4548.75-43.75 and make a move towards our HTF Supply and next target at 4570-62.50. RTH failed to test it and instead we got a push in, consolidation and fail at that area during Thursday Globex and once we got under the Supply and 4448-43 that gave us a nice end of week sell back towards Previous Resistance and then Support at 4508-02 which we ended up breaking and closing under.
This Week :
Tonight we are set to open under our previous Balance of 4548-43 // 4508-02 area after a failed break out above at the end of the week. Question this week is this just trapped supply from our 4570-62.50 area or is this bigger selling that could possibly give us continuation this week towards our lower targets?
Or do we get consolidating around Key Support / Previous Day Low areas and or find strong enough buying to push us back over 4508.75 and keep us in that balance which chance at higher targets?
For the Downside :
If the Market fails to to get over 4508.75-02.50 and hold above then we could see a break of Previous Day low and test of 4487.25-79.75 Key Support, depending on volume it could take time to get through but IF we do and start holding under that could give us more selling to continue through VAH towards lower targets -- Contract Roll Gap 4465.25-60.25, We have Swing Stops and Mean at 4449.75-34.75 area if we get through 65-60. This would be area to watch and hold under for any continuation, if we do get through it and get more selling we have 4422.75-18.75 and untested after we broke back in from below VAL area at 4416.50-05.50 as potential targets. With next area to watch at 4403-4392.25.
For the Upside :
Holding under 4524.25-4508.75-02.50 area means continued weakness, longs would need to be done from lower Support areas either on strong bounces or after some consolidations, if we the selling strong then need to be careful and be ready to exit those quicker. If we do get a hold around Previous Day Low / Key Support area or get strong buying to give us a push back over 4508.75 and hold then we could target a move back towards 4519-24.25 which would be Key Resistance for any continuation higher this week. If we do get a push through 4524.25-32.50 we then could target 4570-62.50 RTH test but for now a lot of Supply above so need to be careful.
We could get more sideways balancing action in this 4480-90 // 4525 areas unless we can take out and hold under/over targets, Structure under is not very strong so would be surprising to not see any continuation at least towards 65-60 if we can hold under 4508 but we will have to wait and see what we get.