SPX...Let's Watch the Machine!
Updated
BLUF: Short either today or next week. VIX is already decreasing..increasing the odds for a continued bounce today...TBD on today's outcome! It's not a matter of if but when...
Of Note: Macro is slowing and the environment is transitioning to Defensives...Gold/Bonds/UTs/Reits, China is going to slow the global economy down eventually effecting US who is Not taking the CoronaVirus serious at all! This will force Central Banks to be dovish and an early "Rate-Cut" ivo June if the FED does not continue the RepoFeedingTube and another Rate-Cut watch the USD go Higher thus crushing global markets and you will see another "Correction" TBD!
Let's see what the FookinQuantMissionaries start to say...BS Meter is Pegged...Situational Awareness!
HEAD SHOTs ONLY!!!
Of Note: Macro is slowing and the environment is transitioning to Defensives...Gold/Bonds/UTs/Reits, China is going to slow the global economy down eventually effecting US who is Not taking the CoronaVirus serious at all! This will force Central Banks to be dovish and an early "Rate-Cut" ivo June if the FED does not continue the RepoFeedingTube and another Rate-Cut watch the USD go Higher thus crushing global markets and you will see another "Correction" TBD!
Let's see what the FookinQuantMissionaries start to say...BS Meter is Pegged...Situational Awareness!
HEAD SHOTs ONLY!!!
Note
9 Laws of Cognition1: There are no benefits without costs (creativity vs learning)
2: Action molds perception
3: Feeling Comes first (before recognition)
4: The mind can override perception (confirmation bias)
5: Cognition mirrors perception
6: Spatial thinking is the foundation of abstract thought
7: The mind fills in misinformation
8: When thought overflows the mind, the mind puts it in the world
9: We organize stuff in the world the way we organize stuff in the mind.
Note
e-markets.nordea.com/It’s do or die time for our slowdown 2.0 narrative. The US job report (Friday) should show signs of weakness if the usual pass through from a setback in job openings to the monthly job creation holds. If the labour market is starting to show signs of weakness, then so should the service sector ISM survey (Wednesday). We lean towards negative surprises in both.
We will also be on alert around the Democratic caucus in Iowa (Monday). Will Bernie manage to pull off a victory in a remarkable comeback after having had heart surgery not too long ago? The caucus will be much more interesting to follow than the impeachment proceedings in the Senate. Trump’s base couldn’t care less about potential witnesses (the Bolton for Biden swap deal etc.) and the base is what matters in this case. Impeachment is a non-story (for markets at least).
Note
OPEX today does have some decent size - interestingly at 3275, 3250 and 3300.SPX Ref: 3284
VIX Ref: 16.85
Zero Gamma: 3234
Vol Trigger: 3250
Neg G: 3250
3250-3300 Range
Note
Correction Range: 3200-3350Note
3240 seems critical - many bounces in the past there and also zero gamma threshold.Note
VIX is Rising,,,,3240 is where the WAR is...at 3235 Dealers have to cover and the momentum goes South...Fookin Head SHOTs ONLY! TBD!Note
In short: with CTAs now liquidation and with gamma no longer a "natural" offset to any selloff, should the selloff accelerate here as L/S funds capitulate, the Fed may have no choice but to intervene to avoid a rout.Note
Cheers....Happy Hour!Still have most of my shorts...TBD next week...FookinVirusFookinEverything!
HEAD SHOTs ONLY
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