S&P500 to Sellside Liquidity
Updated
S&P500 DAILY TIMEFRAME / ("ESM2023" Futures Contract)
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ORDERFLOW & TARGETING:
The Orderflow in S&P is Bearish. Every Bearish Orderblock and Fair Value Gap have been holding price lower. I'm looking for this Orderflow to continue being Bearish until the Sellside Liquidity gets mitigated...
S&P500 has now engineered Sellside Liquidity below current price, inducing Retail traders to Buy at this price point. Therefore, many orders are resting below these equal lows, so the market should seek this Liquidity.
TREASURY BONDS:
The Bond-Market is looking Bullish, which would indicate Lower prices in the S&P - due to their Inverse Correlation against each other.
The Bonds are aiming for their Equal Highs Buyside Liquidity:
POTENTIAL INVALIDATION OF THE IDEA:
- Although I'm Bearish... From where price is at right now - I NEED to see the current Bullish Orderblock's Equilibrium 50% traded THROUGH to the Downside with a Daily Candle closure. (The Bullish Orderblock is that Bearish candle I marked up that price is currently testing). So right now, price is above the 50% price point, and therefore Orderflow is still Bullish short-term. Only when the first Daily Candle CLOSES Below the 50% of the orderblock is when I will be looking to Sell down into Sellside Liquidity. (The 50% of the Orderblock is at 3940. I need to see price Close Below that).
- Market Structure is currently Bearish. However, if the Protected High (the High that caused the Lower Low - Annotated "PH" on the chart) gets traded Above (at 4057), that would become a Bullish Market Stucture Break, and I would no longer be Bearish, but I would rather aim for Buyside Liquidity at 4245 (annotated "SMS" in the chart).
But as long as we Remain Below the Protected High, I still hold my Bearish Bias down into the Sellside Liquidity.
So in Summary of the Invalidations...:
I need to see the Bullish orderblock's 50% get traded Down through, and only then I will start looking for selling into Sellside Liquidity.
As long as price remains below the Protected High - I'm Bearish.
#TechnicalScience ;)
Note
To clarify:Where price is at right now, I am Bullish. Price is testing the Bullish Orderblock. The orderflow is Bullish.
NAS100 looks like it wants to run higher for the next days into its Buyside Liquidity at 13068. If NAS goes higher, then S&P will go higher.
Again, I'm not looking to Short S&P yet. Waiting for the 50% of OB to get taken out first.
I am Bullish as long as price is above the Orderblock's 50%. IF ever the 50% gets closed Below, only then will I look for bearishness.
But it's a "IF" scenario. IF we get the break below 50% I'm Bearish. However, as long as we are above 50%, I'm Bullish. Right now, we are above it and therefore I'm Bullish.
Note
See how the Daily candle was unable to close Below the Orderblock's 50%.That means that our Short-idea is not ready yet. We will probably see some Short-term Bullishness due to the Bullish orderblocks are being supported higher. So I am Bullish until further notice. Should we see something that develops a bearish market structure, then I will look for these equal lows as a target. But right now, I am short-term bullish.
Note
Price had a beautiful run higher from the Bullish Orderblock. As I said in the analysis, I'm only Bearish if the OB's Equilibrium gets closed below, but as long as price never did that, I would be bullish on price as the orderflow was bullish (every bearish candle supports price in going higher).
We've now taken out the mentioned "Protected High" at 4057, and the market structure has shifted to Bullish. I'm looking for a clean run higher into the Buyside Liquidity I mentioned at 4245. I want to see price go above this level to sweep out the resting liquidity, so I'm looking at a run to at least 4260.
Trade closed: target reached
Boom!Beautiful delivery higher up into the Buyside Liquidity sweep at 4260, as I mentioned.
As I said in the "Potential Invalidation of the idea", was that if the Protected High at 4057 got taken out, that would set up a run higher into the Buyside Liquidity at 4245, to then sweep the Liquidity into 4260.
Beautiful price action. Doing exactly what it should do. :)
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