Bitcoin: the king is dead, long live the king!
Updated
We are at a historical moment in the lifetime of the crypto markets. The BTC dominance fell below 50% to never return above it ever again. I already spoke about it in my last ETH/BTC post (linked below); ETH is here to become the second hedge for the crypto market next to BTC.
BITCOIN AS AN INTRODUCTION TO CRYPTO
The time that people only knew Bitcoin and would only buy / trust BTC as an introduction to crypto is as good as over. With alts flourishing in gains, price, use case and performance; the popularity and adoption will only further increase. You could compare it with the internet where the at the start you just had a few dominant and well known websites to evolve into a diverse landscape of numerous websites for an almost infinite amount of use cases and communities backing them.
ALT COINS ARE DEAD
With Bitcoin falling below the 50% mark we have now entered a new era of crypto (like I said in my ETH/BTC post); the era of the "alt coin" is over. Alts are no longer alternative if Bitcoin does not make up most of the crypto market share - and with the projection of the BTC dominance only declining and never getting above 50% ever again; the word "altcoin" is dead. Instead its time for a new era: the era of cryptocoins; where each coin represents a use case and no longer is associated with its dominance in the cryptocap. In the end its simple; I project the BTC dominance to fall below 10% of the total cryptocap within the next 10 years; so how is holding any coin other than BTC seen as "alternative" if these coins make up 90% of the cryptocap? You get my point; its not. So lets get rid of the word "altcoin" right here and right now and lets evolve to an inclusice cryptospace without maxi's or "exclusionalists" and turn them into "inlcusionalists".
THE END FOR BITCOIN?
So you might think this is all doomsday for Bitcoin and I no longer support BTC or its use case, but believe me; I'm still a fan (look at my username) and a hodler. The future of BTC is very bright and we will see a BTC cap at the levels of gold (around 8tr) and possibly beyond. So yes, I project BTC will hit 1 million USD within the next 4 to 6 years. So that doesn't make BTC such a bad investment, does it? What this projection does tell you; is what crypto as a whole will do in the next decade: defi, insurance, decentralized consumer / retail solutions and trustworthy data storage being my first markets of interest concerning adoption. This means that lots of fundamentally strong "smaller cap" coins find their adoption markets and will increase their market caps immensely. Bitcoin will be Bitcoin and will fulfill its use case of digital gold; a hedge against fiat with diminishing risk and returns.
ETH VS BTC
There's one key element missing in the cryptocap puzzle: Ethereum. ETH will fullfill a crucial role for the adoption of crypto amongst the masses by providing safe and robust base layer solutions that will take up more than 50% of the total-cap of the emerging markets mentioned above. This doesnt mean that DOT, KSM, LINK, BNB (and many others) won't have any adoption or wont do well. It simply means that ETH is the Microsoft of the blockchain space - whereas most computers ran (and still run) on Windows, you will see that most blockchains will run on ETH protocols, base layers or smart contracts. Ok, great but what does this mean?
Well, this means something HUGE is about to happen and I have not heard any trader on this website about it (yet). ETH will, in the mid term; flip BTC in terms of marketcap. So this means in the future; the main hedge of crypto against crypto (not fiat) will be ETH and the ETH dominance. I project; depending on the adoption of other protocols that the ETH dominance will fluctuate between 40 and 60% in the coming decade. Obviously this means for traders that you compare your cryptocoin (not altcoin) with ETH; when you outperform ETH; you do well - when you don't; you're underperforming. An important note that I do want to add is that - also ETH in the long term - will have diminishing returns and risk - and will have the same faith as BTC - with eventually becoming less dominant in the total cryptocap and space. For now, however; its starting its way up to become the new king of crypto.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
So if we look at the BTC and ETH dominance, you can clearly see that the charts and market support my theory. BTC fell below king levels of 50% and I do not expect it to ever return above it for a long period of time. It might retest 50% going into the bear market but I expect a rejection - to never return there again. So when people are chatting about "alt season", just please stop with it. It has been alt season since January and it will be alt season forever. That is a given, however with a important note that the next bear market will be painful for the alt cap in the short/mid-term. The long term is only bullish. I project the ETH dominance to keep holding a bull trend with again some possible pullbacks during the next bear market in order to just keep surging from there on after.
So to conclude, the BTC dominance will be in a permanent bear trend all the way towards 10% levels in the next decade. ETH will do the exact opposite and can (not will) surge above 50% dominance. I do not want to state my ETH price projection for the coming decade because I believe it might be too much to handle for most traders and we have to see how the deflationary model will work, but (if you like) you can 5x the craziest ETH predictions on Youtube and you could get close. For the short term; you can check my chart of where I think both are heading and I projected a nice cup and handle for the ETH dominance with a 36% surge against a -28% fall for BTC! The cup and handle being totally my own imagination but that doesn't matter too much; what matters is what the macro trend tells us: a new chapter for crypto has begun.
The king is dead, long live the king!
BITCOIN AS AN INTRODUCTION TO CRYPTO
The time that people only knew Bitcoin and would only buy / trust BTC as an introduction to crypto is as good as over. With alts flourishing in gains, price, use case and performance; the popularity and adoption will only further increase. You could compare it with the internet where the at the start you just had a few dominant and well known websites to evolve into a diverse landscape of numerous websites for an almost infinite amount of use cases and communities backing them.
ALT COINS ARE DEAD
With Bitcoin falling below the 50% mark we have now entered a new era of crypto (like I said in my ETH/BTC post); the era of the "alt coin" is over. Alts are no longer alternative if Bitcoin does not make up most of the crypto market share - and with the projection of the BTC dominance only declining and never getting above 50% ever again; the word "altcoin" is dead. Instead its time for a new era: the era of cryptocoins; where each coin represents a use case and no longer is associated with its dominance in the cryptocap. In the end its simple; I project the BTC dominance to fall below 10% of the total cryptocap within the next 10 years; so how is holding any coin other than BTC seen as "alternative" if these coins make up 90% of the cryptocap? You get my point; its not. So lets get rid of the word "altcoin" right here and right now and lets evolve to an inclusice cryptospace without maxi's or "exclusionalists" and turn them into "inlcusionalists".
THE END FOR BITCOIN?
So you might think this is all doomsday for Bitcoin and I no longer support BTC or its use case, but believe me; I'm still a fan (look at my username) and a hodler. The future of BTC is very bright and we will see a BTC cap at the levels of gold (around 8tr) and possibly beyond. So yes, I project BTC will hit 1 million USD within the next 4 to 6 years. So that doesn't make BTC such a bad investment, does it? What this projection does tell you; is what crypto as a whole will do in the next decade: defi, insurance, decentralized consumer / retail solutions and trustworthy data storage being my first markets of interest concerning adoption. This means that lots of fundamentally strong "smaller cap" coins find their adoption markets and will increase their market caps immensely. Bitcoin will be Bitcoin and will fulfill its use case of digital gold; a hedge against fiat with diminishing risk and returns.
ETH VS BTC
There's one key element missing in the cryptocap puzzle: Ethereum. ETH will fullfill a crucial role for the adoption of crypto amongst the masses by providing safe and robust base layer solutions that will take up more than 50% of the total-cap of the emerging markets mentioned above. This doesnt mean that DOT, KSM, LINK, BNB (and many others) won't have any adoption or wont do well. It simply means that ETH is the Microsoft of the blockchain space - whereas most computers ran (and still run) on Windows, you will see that most blockchains will run on ETH protocols, base layers or smart contracts. Ok, great but what does this mean?
Well, this means something HUGE is about to happen and I have not heard any trader on this website about it (yet). ETH will, in the mid term; flip BTC in terms of marketcap. So this means in the future; the main hedge of crypto against crypto (not fiat) will be ETH and the ETH dominance. I project; depending on the adoption of other protocols that the ETH dominance will fluctuate between 40 and 60% in the coming decade. Obviously this means for traders that you compare your cryptocoin (not altcoin) with ETH; when you outperform ETH; you do well - when you don't; you're underperforming. An important note that I do want to add is that - also ETH in the long term - will have diminishing returns and risk - and will have the same faith as BTC - with eventually becoming less dominant in the total cryptocap and space. For now, however; its starting its way up to become the new king of crypto.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
So if we look at the BTC and ETH dominance, you can clearly see that the charts and market support my theory. BTC fell below king levels of 50% and I do not expect it to ever return above it for a long period of time. It might retest 50% going into the bear market but I expect a rejection - to never return there again. So when people are chatting about "alt season", just please stop with it. It has been alt season since January and it will be alt season forever. That is a given, however with a important note that the next bear market will be painful for the alt cap in the short/mid-term. The long term is only bullish. I project the ETH dominance to keep holding a bull trend with again some possible pullbacks during the next bear market in order to just keep surging from there on after.
So to conclude, the BTC dominance will be in a permanent bear trend all the way towards 10% levels in the next decade. ETH will do the exact opposite and can (not will) surge above 50% dominance. I do not want to state my ETH price projection for the coming decade because I believe it might be too much to handle for most traders and we have to see how the deflationary model will work, but (if you like) you can 5x the craziest ETH predictions on Youtube and you could get close. For the short term; you can check my chart of where I think both are heading and I projected a nice cup and handle for the ETH dominance with a 36% surge against a -28% fall for BTC! The cup and handle being totally my own imagination but that doesn't matter too much; what matters is what the macro trend tells us: a new chapter for crypto has begun.
The king is dead, long live the king!
Note
IMPORTANT: this post is purely educational and reflects my own viewpoint and does not represent any financial advice - trade or invest based on your own risk and research.
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