ETF on ETH how high will it go? Targets given based on BTC ETFs
Compare what happened on BTC? – so true money flow – real $ actually put into it
At the time mrkt cap 1.4 T July 24 – (numbers rounded up easy maths)
BTC @ Market cap of 1T it was estimated that 300 Billion of real money was used to push the price to give a market cap of 1T. This is because the last price paid is applied across all BTCs to create a ‘market cap’ we assign to BTC
Hence implies / assumes an uplift factor of say 3-4 for BTC for real money to move the price to achieve a market cap. We notice that the 17 B is no linear model – maybe somewhat explained as the supply of BTC is diminishing.
Say in first half ie to-date 17 billion put into ETFs (5-6%) of total money ever put into BTC achieves this move of 90% increase in price (600B) (versus 17 x 3-4 = 51-68B)
17 B moves 800 B mrkt cap to 1.4 T = 0.02125 ratio
Limited supply of BTC on exchanges and retail and institutions tend to hoddle this is a factor
So how about ETH now? also 30% staked
Market cap for ETH is lower but not by so much considering – & real funds available on the ETF route estimated to be 10-20% of the money put into BTC so say 3-5 Billion best guess by Jordan on Kitco (prior analysts got the amount of ETF funds wrong they underestimated what was in the pipeline)
Announcement of ETH ETF resulted on 80 million added overnight to market cap by bidding up the price
Jordan estimates 4-5 B to flow via ETH funds - spot means the fund mngrs have to buy ETH up to 30-90 or so days later depending on fund set up rules
So 5 B moves 420 B how much if same pattern then 90% can be expected maths shows 0.02125 rato
So 5/420=0.0119
So 0.0119/0.02125= 0.56
So 420*1.56=655M just over the ATH for ETH which is highly plausible and exceeds the Asc Tri target still on ETH from prior years approx. 33% still to go. Makes ETH a sensible investment moving forward if you are bullish
For 4 B inflow works out 44% hence 1.44 x 420 =604B market cap for ETH which is same as HVF full target if you use most volume line as axis as a prediction.
Of course after the first few days we can see the rate of flow of money into the EFT ETH fund and compare to BTC and then predict the $4-5 Billion more accurately and adjust the model for ETH price
Once the ETF flows run everyone can calculate this and it becomes obvious if you would have go back into ETH as it hit its recent KLOS you had pretty much a guaranteed 66% in under a year with next to no down side risk exposure.
This is as a minimum objective based on info before the flow of ETF funds were known. So it should be updated as data becomes clarified. The method is logical and fair. Awareness of factors leading to the market cap/price is still relatively uncommon knowledge.
Disclaimer: Just for education purposes not advice. Unless you are an institution. If you are a family officer and don't deliver 100% y on y and want further discussion happy to do so please contact me directly. My fees start once I have delivered 100% gain and reset annually balanced with a good sharpe ratio giving min acceptable risk to the customer. Good luck guys remember that the market loves us!
At the time mrkt cap 1.4 T July 24 – (numbers rounded up easy maths)
BTC @ Market cap of 1T it was estimated that 300 Billion of real money was used to push the price to give a market cap of 1T. This is because the last price paid is applied across all BTCs to create a ‘market cap’ we assign to BTC
Hence implies / assumes an uplift factor of say 3-4 for BTC for real money to move the price to achieve a market cap. We notice that the 17 B is no linear model – maybe somewhat explained as the supply of BTC is diminishing.
Say in first half ie to-date 17 billion put into ETFs (5-6%) of total money ever put into BTC achieves this move of 90% increase in price (600B) (versus 17 x 3-4 = 51-68B)
17 B moves 800 B mrkt cap to 1.4 T = 0.02125 ratio
Limited supply of BTC on exchanges and retail and institutions tend to hoddle this is a factor
So how about ETH now? also 30% staked
Market cap for ETH is lower but not by so much considering – & real funds available on the ETF route estimated to be 10-20% of the money put into BTC so say 3-5 Billion best guess by Jordan on Kitco (prior analysts got the amount of ETF funds wrong they underestimated what was in the pipeline)
Announcement of ETH ETF resulted on 80 million added overnight to market cap by bidding up the price
Jordan estimates 4-5 B to flow via ETH funds - spot means the fund mngrs have to buy ETH up to 30-90 or so days later depending on fund set up rules
So 5 B moves 420 B how much if same pattern then 90% can be expected maths shows 0.02125 rato
So 5/420=0.0119
So 0.0119/0.02125= 0.56
So 420*1.56=655M just over the ATH for ETH which is highly plausible and exceeds the Asc Tri target still on ETH from prior years approx. 33% still to go. Makes ETH a sensible investment moving forward if you are bullish
For 4 B inflow works out 44% hence 1.44 x 420 =604B market cap for ETH which is same as HVF full target if you use most volume line as axis as a prediction.
Of course after the first few days we can see the rate of flow of money into the EFT ETH fund and compare to BTC and then predict the $4-5 Billion more accurately and adjust the model for ETH price
Once the ETF flows run everyone can calculate this and it becomes obvious if you would have go back into ETH as it hit its recent KLOS you had pretty much a guaranteed 66% in under a year with next to no down side risk exposure.
This is as a minimum objective based on info before the flow of ETF funds were known. So it should be updated as data becomes clarified. The method is logical and fair. Awareness of factors leading to the market cap/price is still relatively uncommon knowledge.
Disclaimer: Just for education purposes not advice. Unless you are an institution. If you are a family officer and don't deliver 100% y on y and want further discussion happy to do so please contact me directly. My fees start once I have delivered 100% gain and reset annually balanced with a good sharpe ratio giving min acceptable risk to the customer. Good luck guys remember that the market loves us!
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.