ETHBTC may be putting in a major fakeout
Updated
As usual, what follows isn't financial advice but a mere observation.
This idea is to be considered as a follow-up of the one that can be found linked below.
As explained in my last study, we're witnessing extremely low levels of volatility on the weekly timeframe for ETHBTC.
While price action wasn't exactly confidence-inducing until a couple days ago, tides might be beginning to change.
We can observe how since july 2020, the 21EMA (yellow) and the 55EMA (green) have never had the chance to bearishly cross.
This brings me to a very simple point, if we can see a weekly ETHBTC close above both EMAs, essentially producing a fakeout, the idea that the expansion phase coming from this extremely low volatility environment will be to the upside will begin to appear more probable.
The horizontal ray that's marking the march 2023 high (0.073544) is the obvious line in the sand for me, a weekly close above that level will make me consider that ETHBTC is putting in a major - possibly even macro - low.
Keep in mind that as long as the price keeps being held down by both the 21EMA and the 55EMA this is just a possible scenario waiting to unfold, but still unconfirmed.
Furthermore, a weekly close below this current week low (0.062037) will very likely result in a much more severe downside continuation, with targets already discussed in the idea linked below.
Whatever happens, stay safe and wait for confirmation.
This idea is to be considered as a follow-up of the one that can be found linked below.
As explained in my last study, we're witnessing extremely low levels of volatility on the weekly timeframe for ETHBTC.
While price action wasn't exactly confidence-inducing until a couple days ago, tides might be beginning to change.
We can observe how since july 2020, the 21EMA (yellow) and the 55EMA (green) have never had the chance to bearishly cross.
This brings me to a very simple point, if we can see a weekly ETHBTC close above both EMAs, essentially producing a fakeout, the idea that the expansion phase coming from this extremely low volatility environment will be to the upside will begin to appear more probable.
The horizontal ray that's marking the march 2023 high (0.073544) is the obvious line in the sand for me, a weekly close above that level will make me consider that ETHBTC is putting in a major - possibly even macro - low.
Keep in mind that as long as the price keeps being held down by both the 21EMA and the 55EMA this is just a possible scenario waiting to unfold, but still unconfirmed.
Furthermore, a weekly close below this current week low (0.062037) will very likely result in a much more severe downside continuation, with targets already discussed in the idea linked below.
Whatever happens, stay safe and wait for confirmation.
Note
ETHBTC has printed a weekly close above both EMAs, laying down the first brick for a potential fakeout confirmation.Note
Any potential sign of fakeout has been dodged, there's no reason to be bullish as long as ETHBTC is closing candles below both the 21EMA and 55EMA on the daily, on the weekly, and especially below the high printed last week.As a matter of fact, even if just slightly so, last week's close confirmed a bearish cross between the 21EMA and the 55EMA.
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