Bubble Popper?
Updated
As I predicted in my previous post, my gut feeling was that Ethereum is worth about €150, which we are at now give or take. But if you have a look at the 4 hour chart you see a clear trend line for this downward "bubble popping" trend. Yes, there is an upward trend from the over sold recent new low but I consider this a correction up to the trend line. If this trend line holds true, then we are a bit over bought right now. And a sell off will start soon, so we go a bit under the trend line again, and so on..
I think the trend will continue to follow this line down to €100 or maybe even €50, which was a fair price before the bubble started to inflate.
If you look at the Bitfinex and Gdax ETH/USD charts, there have been several attempts to break over $190'ish now, but all has failed. As I'm writing this, there are now a new attempt to break over the $190'ish resistance. So lets see how it goes.
Now, I could of course be wrong, and this may be the reversal to a bullish trend. So we are clearly in a grey area right now.
I am short over the long run though.
But consider this, there have been no new positive news for Ethereum. Quite the contrary in fact, with all the problems the network has with big volume transactions such as with big ICO's for example.
And now there is a competitor coming that is rumored to be the "Ethereum killer". This new blockchain is said to have everything Ethereum lacks and then some.
Thoughts?
Happy trading! :)
I think the trend will continue to follow this line down to €100 or maybe even €50, which was a fair price before the bubble started to inflate.
If you look at the Bitfinex and Gdax ETH/USD charts, there have been several attempts to break over $190'ish now, but all has failed. As I'm writing this, there are now a new attempt to break over the $190'ish resistance. So lets see how it goes.
Now, I could of course be wrong, and this may be the reversal to a bullish trend. So we are clearly in a grey area right now.
I am short over the long run though.
But consider this, there have been no new positive news for Ethereum. Quite the contrary in fact, with all the problems the network has with big volume transactions such as with big ICO's for example.
And now there is a competitor coming that is rumored to be the "Ethereum killer". This new blockchain is said to have everything Ethereum lacks and then some.
Thoughts?
Happy trading! :)
Note
Just a FYI. About 30-45 minutes ago on Bitfinex, a 5000 ETH buy wall at around $190 was crushed pretty fast. I think that is a good signal for what I posted above.
Note
I was wrong about the Bitfinex/Gdax $190 resistance. I am now trading long on the 15 minute chart. I will probably cash in around €183, expecting a dive down towards the trend line and of course trade in a short after closing the long. (Kraken ETH/EUR)Note
We have now broken out from the bearish trend line. Time to buy!Note
It looks like we might have had a false break out from my analysis posted above. The reason I think is traders that don't take into consideration all the problems with Ethereum, and just trade after general trends in other cryptos like Bitcoin or other alts that have no or less problems with the underlying protocols and network nodes.I am fully aware that it is a bit too early yo tell if this is indeed a false breakout or genuine one. Most Americans are still asleep I guess, so that's a factor :)
I bet on my gut here and have just now placed a short position, on what I think is high on the "mini bubble" inside of the general bubble :)
I will of course take profits close to my trend line.
But I will be sitting here ready to close my short if we go over $250 on Bitfinex.
Thoughts?
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