Long

Updated

The Flippening is Upon Us

It's already a done deal.

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expect ETH to skyrocket once we hit around the 600 mark

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10% in one or two 4hr candles won't be outside the realm of possibility, one is probably a better bet.

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Obviously you guys are looking at other charts, and if you've been following my previous charts you've probably noticed a big difference between me and a lot of the other guys, namely how we draw the downwards channel, which trendlines to use as resistance and support. For the majority of top writers we are bumping up against the downwards channel now, and the Inverse H&S for Bitcoin would finish once that happens. I don't believe that to be the case, as you may have seen with the "BREAKOUT WILL HAPPEN" post, I believe that the neckline has already finished and that we've already escaped the downward channel. The straight up 1k breakout we saw 2 weeks ago was the consequence of that. What we're battling against right now is the anomalous second peak that was created during our decent down. I talk about it in more detail in the "Enter the Triangle" post. But that peak should not be there, it should have been shorter than the first peak. It's a clear sign of price manipulation, due to that fact we actually escaped from the downward channel once before. Right now we are simply fighting a shadow fight, one that we've already one with the completion of the (actual) neckline. If anyone is concerned that we'll get through back to the channel shouldn't be, that's what the last two weeks of triangle hell has been about. We'll be moving up at a faster clip through the next week or so once this line is breached.

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that one should be a won, smh

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and thrown not through. I'll do a once over before the next comment :D

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I'm going to do a little show and tell here for those you want to apply some of these ideas on the way up to take full advantage of our current situation. First up is the triangle.

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Most people will tell you that moving below the 1hr or 4hr chart is a bad idea. And generally, I'd agree. However, when faced with sideways action, meaning that you are inside of a triangle or a square it helps to calm the nerves when you can see a clearer picture of that's going on inside the shape. For instance below is from the 15min chart and the triangle we're currently in. Obviously, on the 1 or 4hr charts these would simply look like candles. Once you've determined the general shape of the triangle you can determine the price highs and price lows you'll be bumping against. You'll also be able to anticipate that he price range becomes narrower as you move further along inside of it. If the price rises above or below the triangle then promptly returns back into it, then you need expand your triangle to make it bigger because whichever direction the price breaks, and it will eventually break, it will linger at the edge of the newly expanded triangle before doing so. Also good to note is that when bumping against a strong resistance or support line, the price will generally try to jump out of the triangle more than once, and it will need to be adjusted. To calm the nerves remember that whichever direction the price breaks, it will bump up against a side and will linger, if only for a few minutes - longer for bigger triangles, before the break takes place, giving you some extra time to reconsider any positions you may have taken. But as a general rule, you want to avoid taking positions within the triangle. You know for a fact that there will be a break, so you want to put yourself in a position to take advantage of that whichever direction that takes. Should you have already entered a position prior to hitting a triangle, you can now anticipate the price at which things might go for or against you

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Here's an updated picture since I've been typing and you can see that we might hit the black dotted line:

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While we're waiting for the triangle to finish, I'll move onto the Cup and Handler pattern. So it's as the name would indicate the formation looks like a big dip followed by a little dip as pictured below. Things to note is that the handle oftentimes is followed by another even smaller handle, and the cup is oftentimes followed by a smaller cup:

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You can see that the smallest of the handles actually manifests as the triangle on the 15min. Obviously the break from the 15min triangle won't give us that much of a bump up, but that breakout will finish our cup and handle formation, and for that you can expect a bump up about the depth of the cup. Side notes about cup and handle formations is that you want to avoid cups with pointy bottoms, and you want to avoid handles can hang down more than halfway below the top of the cup. As you may have noticed you could very easily have drawn an inverse head and shoulders pattern on top of the pattern above. That's because they are basically one in the same, which is why there is usually a preceding cup in a cs, and why they tell you to avoid pointy cups - as you could very well be inside the left shoulder of a bearish hs formation instead. If it were a pointy cup, I would wait until the left shoulder or handle to form above the lowest point prior to placing any positions. But in a case like the curved cup above, you could ride the curve up to the highest point then exit the position should the handle move below the mid-point of the cup, or simply ride through the formation of the handle to the breakout.

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back to our triangle, and you can see that we are at attempt number 2 to break out of it:

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Attempt #2 was not successful. While we wait for attempt #3, I'll show you the overlay of the handle of the handle of the cup and handler formation... that's a mouth full... on top of the triangle, and you can see that even after we break out of the triangle we'll have another pause while we fight to complete the handle, which will have to be done prior to our actual breakout. So now's probably a good time to get a sandwich :)

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we broke out of the triangle, hooray!

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you can see we stopped right at the blue trend line, which is the line I drew for the inv H&S, as stated before essentially the same concept, so since the price did that I adjusted the shape of my cup, and the breakout point, to fit the trend line:

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Here's the inverse H&S that fits that blue neckline. You can see that the right shoulder formed by the mini handle is ridiculously tiny. This type of tiny right shoulder has been a feature for these patterns as we've been moving up, and it is a very bullish sign.

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now back to our 4 hr, home sweet home, you can see all of the action above has taken place between two candles. You can also see that we are already parabolic, with the trend line going basically straight up. We're about to take that up a notch and even more verticle with this next jump:

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using our overlay from November 2017, this should be what you see in the next 4-8 hours:

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we added a mini triangle to that right shoulder over the last 30mins or so. Sometimes, when you have all the elements of your trade in place, it's better just walk away and let it do its thing. In any case, we're back inside of a triangle. It's an ascending triangle, in which the lows get higher but the highs do not. While every rule has it's exceptions, ascending triangles created during an upwards trend usually break up, the buying pressure is what keeps bumping up against the ceiling of the triangle, and every bump up creates more force moving forward. The breakout point still holds as does the expected movement upwards.

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a view from the 1hr. The price will have to break through the triangle in the next 45min, if it doesn't, there's a chance that the candlestick formation created will be an evening star and that would be bad for us.

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you could also view the action as a rectangle, which during an upwards trend is mostly bullish:

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a note on the evening star, unlike the morning star wherein the third candle only needs to come up to at least the middle of the first candle, a proper evening star has a third candle that completely engulfs the first one.

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when viewed from the 4hr, you can see that the whole contraption is a bull flag:

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While we wait here's one other note. If you do a comparison between the BTC and ETH charts you can see where the black line is is the equivalent of where the price stopped for BTC. This is now the spot at which we have this current fight and will be the starting place for an explosive jump up. This is because ETH prices should never have dropped below the black line were it to be assessed on its own merits. Obviously, we all know why the price dropped so far. Now, all that energy spent pushing the price down, comes back to push the price back up in our favor.

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Here's a link to one of my previous charts on ETH. As you can see, I initially thought that we would go parabolic sooner. But now that we've exited the blue channel for greener pastures, it might be interesting to see how much of the rest of the chart holds up.

At the crossroads, a tale of two Ethereums... Etherei?

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on the day chart you can see that we've broken through the BTC equivalent line, and that we will hit a bit of a pause when we bump up against the 200SMA (red crosses) on the way up. But the break up has definitely started.

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you can also see from the where the overlay rests, that the intersection with the 100SMA will probably stop us cold for a while, maybe up to a couple of days.

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the tie-breaking event during that sideways - triangle action, will most like be the golden cross, or the cross-over of the 50SMA and the 200SMA. As the name implies this is a very bullish event. This will pave the way to get to the confirmation line of Fractal #3 as shown in the Fractals Fractals Everywhere Bitcoin Edition (Part 2) chart. Now as you may have guessed from my comments on that chart. That junction that BTC faces, around the 9500 mark, could end very disastrously OR could pave the way for BTC to reach new heights. It will really be the event if you will that will let us know what to expect for at least the next 2 months, if not longer. So watch for that as we get closer. I'll be switching over to that chart once we are within reach.

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50SMA in blue circles

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I'll leave you guys to enjoy the show :)

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Hey, silent lurkers! Mind giving a like for the continuously awesome analysis :). Thanks in advance!

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I'll add here that Bitcoin is a fickle b@#$%. I did not expect that jump.

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this is going to be worthwhile reading

A half-baked theory about crypto manipulation

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I really should have seen this coming, given where I drew my confirmation line for fractal 2

Fractals Fractals Everywhere Bitcoin Edition (Part 1)

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That was just the preshow guys, as soon as the 100SMA crosses over the 200SMA on the 4hr, we're going to see something even more explosive:

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just look at this 4hr hour chart overlay and think happy thoughts, we'll be heading back up soon

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if you were so inclined, you can watch a fractal replay of the crash and the recovery thus far. Use Heikin Ashi candles, it'll make things easier to see. We're right at the point of the 1k jump from 2 weeks ago.

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happening on the 1min chart

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You may even see a preview of what's to come ;)

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I'm actually curious how this turns out myself. Just remember that the fractal will only foretell the most probably result based on the current movement of the price. That may very well change when outside factors come into play.

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that inverse hs is obviously misdrawn. here's a better drawn comparison:

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yikes, realize I'm comparison the btc 4hr against the eth 1min. not that it really matters at this point but here's the btc 4hr against the btc 1min:

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remember how I said that second peak should have been lower than the first? Bitcoin agrees with me.

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If you've read through my previous charts, you may have seen that I changed my mind from thinking that one of the adam and eve bottoms had yet to be created to thinking that it already had. This fractal is telling me, that it hasn't and the the bottom will be an eve:

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Here's our redrawn 4hr chart to match the fractal:

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Fractals can be very difficult to read, especially if you are getting this complicated with it and you would never want to base your entire analysis on a fractal replay. That said, if you are on the fence and there are mixed signals, for me at least, they are the tie-breaker. I miss read the fractal as it was happening, the eve bottom has already finished... you can see why I went back and forth so many times on this point in my charts. Here's the updated comparison:

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This fractal gives some support to an idea that came up earlier during a convo I had, that the dip, should it happen, would stop around the 9200 mark and find support there.

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12k is within the realm of possibility.

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I have a secondary analysis where we fail at this point.

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If my secondary analysis is correct, this would coincide with a large dip around the 14k mark:

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ut oh...

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I'll add a note here while we're waiting for this fractal to finish. It's really hard to identify fractal replays. To the already hard process of identifying a fractal, you are identifying an unfinished fractal, of a fractal that has yet to occur, as trippy as that is. Once the fractal moves past the point of the chart that I've already extrapolated, I stop looking at it, as you have no idea what you could be looking at from that point forward. Again fractal replays only play out the most likely scenario based on the current situation, which could very well change. Also, they morph into other fractal formations at any given moment, so all that to say take this technique, if you want to call it that, more as entertainment and perhaps confirmation of your analysis than anything else.

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From experience, I can tell you it's pointless to watch after this point.

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I'll try to reason through the implications of this using actual indicators and more, shall we say, conventional techniques tomorrow. In the meantime, I remain extremely bullish for the next few weeks. Have a good night!

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If my working theory is correct, BTC will do a jump up right now

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Spike then drop, we're on a good track. I'll explain with a rather lengthy explanation, per request, in the AM. Look for that triangle if the situation becomes nerve provoking :)

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If you're feeling adventurous, I'm providing live updates on how to trade fractal patterns on the "Back to Basics" chart. Disclaimer here, I would never recommend that someone trade withinside these smaller patterns/triangles. When it comes to trading, I lean towards the "almost reckless"/"take too much risk side", so beware of that when I'm providing updates on trades. I'll ID the trades I think might be worth it for you. You should stay out of the triangle altogether until we've had a break to one side or the other, either sidelines or HODLing will both serve that purpose, this is purely for entertainment purposes only. And to help you guys ID these fractal patterns in the future.

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ok, guys I'm about to blow your mind:

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see that weird shaped Inverse Head and Shoulders? Just note the shape of the head.

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A slanted version:

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mini me of the slanted head:

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we not dropping until we hit 12k

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No more updates until we hit $11782. Why? Well, the fractal from yesterday told me to, among other reasons. Ignore the FUD, FOMO, and all the crazy theories. The people have spoken, and the people always win. We're in for a while ride. Until we get there my only advice is to HODL and to enjoy the show. See you at the cross line!

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Hey guys, I just put up an update on the "BREAKOUT WILL HAPPEN (PART II) chart. It details the explosive jump we are about to see, timing etc. Go check it out, you don't want to miss it.

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github.com/ethereum/wiki/wiki/Sharding-FAQ

read it.

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Obviously, I didn't give BTC enough credit. ETH is going to blow up due to essentially what amounts to software updates, really really important software updates. BTC is going to become, I hate to say this, but a store of value for the everyday Joe. Whether or not ETH overtakes BTC in the interim, with each downturn BTC will hold its ground independent of its technology. ETH will have to continue to improve and grow its network to keep it's value.

Rainman2

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Rainman2