I've spoken for a while about Ethereum's relative weakness. It continues to break down from long term uptrends. If price doesn't reverse this week's candle back to the upside soon, I think ETH is in danger of entering a longer term bear market, leading to sub-$1000 prices once again. More specifically, from a moving average and structure standpoint, I think ETH must reclaim the $3k level with confidence, or risk total free fall.
I don't need to spell out all the reasons I think crypto is NOT going to change the world for the better or be "disruptive" in a meaningful way, but I've exhausted all of my writing steam on the matter.
Some new environmental factors have emerged, however, which are much in line with what I've been concerned about over the last several years.
We can clearly see from a Macro standpoint that growth is stalling. Local governments and isolationism are starting to gain preference over globalization, in a large see-saw effect. In addition, Trump has further tarnished whatever neutral reputation crypto had gained on the global stage. I think institutions are even less likely to take this market seriously now.
There's pretty much air beneath here.
The crypto TOTAL market cap is now testing the highs from the previous bull market. It really should hold up here to avoid catastrophic damage:
TOTAL2 (altcoins and stables) is well below its previous all-time high, showing the potential for a truly failed bull market if things don't bounce around these levels.
ETH/BTC is already in free-fall mode. My guess is new lows for the ratio (below the 2019 levels)
Anyway, that's all from me. I won't be as long-winded as I used to be. Thanks for reading! As always, this is meant for speculation and entertainment only, and not as financial advice.
-Victor Cobra
I don't need to spell out all the reasons I think crypto is NOT going to change the world for the better or be "disruptive" in a meaningful way, but I've exhausted all of my writing steam on the matter.
Some new environmental factors have emerged, however, which are much in line with what I've been concerned about over the last several years.
We can clearly see from a Macro standpoint that growth is stalling. Local governments and isolationism are starting to gain preference over globalization, in a large see-saw effect. In addition, Trump has further tarnished whatever neutral reputation crypto had gained on the global stage. I think institutions are even less likely to take this market seriously now.
There's pretty much air beneath here.
The crypto TOTAL market cap is now testing the highs from the previous bull market. It really should hold up here to avoid catastrophic damage:
TOTAL2 (altcoins and stables) is well below its previous all-time high, showing the potential for a truly failed bull market if things don't bounce around these levels.
ETH/BTC is already in free-fall mode. My guess is new lows for the ratio (below the 2019 levels)
Anyway, that's all from me. I won't be as long-winded as I used to be. Thanks for reading! As always, this is meant for speculation and entertainment only, and not as financial advice.
-Victor Cobra
Note
Continuing to look as bearish as can be. If ETH can manage to bounce back above those weekly MA's and hold above, currently near $2500, then I think price will start to look a little more bullish again. 
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.