SNP Signalling Moves 2 Hours Prior - and why I am MAX short ETH
Updated
All,
Noticing 2 important trends AND have a conclusion - be short anything liquid, lever up on that short (for me ETH) when BTC breaks 55300.
1. Overlaying the SNP helps confirm the direction of BTC. Sometimes (once or twice a week) flashes buy/sell hours in advance. Equity VIX is forecasting the NASDAQ dump..and that dump is spreading.
2. Within the SNP, tech is rolling over and the market darling (TSLA) has finally broken the 600 technical level.
THE BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE.
Watch overnight futures to tell the open in the US market. If significantly down (NASDAQ), it will pull the SNP which will pull the DOW. So far, these are bought back within days due to MMT...but MMT has forced asset prices WAY higher then the cash those assets can generate...and the economy has rolled over (we are needing constant stimulus).
The US is giving money to cities in stimulus with little to no effect and ever more frequently, despite the economy truly being open (at least here in Miami and on planes, vacations...). It appears we are injecting stimulus into markets, inflating housing and cars which are driving up costs (lodging) and, possibly, creating wage inflation...making us less competitive and, ultimately, slowing the economy more. Some see this but don't know the tipping point. MY GUESS...already past it...that is why the stimulus is needed.
Hilary Clinton (on Fareed Zakaria Sunday - you can listen to a podcast or watch on the web) said they are inflating assets to create tax rev to pay back the stimulus (sorry...idiotic thought).
Crypto Facts...
1. BTC flat...appears it wants to roll over more than it wants to rip up...winter is coming. Or just a deep correction.
2. Dogecoin...really...to the basement!
3. Safe moon...good lord.
4. ETC - like someone selling Microsft Word discs...triples in a month?
and much more
LOOK, I think defi is a great idea...but will govs allow (cut fiat on/off-ramp). Valuing ETH and 2x Oracle....10x Workday...software dev platforms with apps, buildings, cash flow, contracts, etc. Honestly, my gut says we are ahead of ourselves.
BTC is a public-facing, secure XLS w 8 columns. ETH, same, but with 30 columns and the ability to build macros. PeopleSoft (outdated Oracle apps technologies have > 10,000 tables (ETH, BTC...single table) with AT LEAST 150 columns. Blockchain is coming and real and amazing and i get it....but it also years away.
For those old enough...
1. CMGI
2. Copper Mountain
3. Commerce One
4. JDS Uniphase
5. Phone.com
6. US Web
All gone or damn near worthless. And whether we like it or not...ETH will MOST LIKELY go that way too. I AM NOT saying don't buy...don't hope...BUT I am DEFINITELY saying that there is no true clear path to cash that I can see. That i see NO (non-trading) app on my phone, connected to my corporate applications (Oracle, SAP, etc), none for my 6 YO, none used by my ex-wife...NOTHING yet.
If BTC breaks 53500...it will track to 47000. If it breaks 47000, see you at 41000ish. Will that be the bottom...truly, who knows. I believe it is coming AND I believe we are massively ahead of ourselves. BE CAREFUL
Noticing 2 important trends AND have a conclusion - be short anything liquid, lever up on that short (for me ETH) when BTC breaks 55300.
1. Overlaying the SNP helps confirm the direction of BTC. Sometimes (once or twice a week) flashes buy/sell hours in advance. Equity VIX is forecasting the NASDAQ dump..and that dump is spreading.
2. Within the SNP, tech is rolling over and the market darling (TSLA) has finally broken the 600 technical level.
THE BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE.
Watch overnight futures to tell the open in the US market. If significantly down (NASDAQ), it will pull the SNP which will pull the DOW. So far, these are bought back within days due to MMT...but MMT has forced asset prices WAY higher then the cash those assets can generate...and the economy has rolled over (we are needing constant stimulus).
The US is giving money to cities in stimulus with little to no effect and ever more frequently, despite the economy truly being open (at least here in Miami and on planes, vacations...). It appears we are injecting stimulus into markets, inflating housing and cars which are driving up costs (lodging) and, possibly, creating wage inflation...making us less competitive and, ultimately, slowing the economy more. Some see this but don't know the tipping point. MY GUESS...already past it...that is why the stimulus is needed.
Hilary Clinton (on Fareed Zakaria Sunday - you can listen to a podcast or watch on the web) said they are inflating assets to create tax rev to pay back the stimulus (sorry...idiotic thought).
Crypto Facts...
1. BTC flat...appears it wants to roll over more than it wants to rip up...winter is coming. Or just a deep correction.
2. Dogecoin...really...to the basement!
3. Safe moon...good lord.
4. ETC - like someone selling Microsft Word discs...triples in a month?
and much more
LOOK, I think defi is a great idea...but will govs allow (cut fiat on/off-ramp). Valuing ETH and 2x Oracle....10x Workday...software dev platforms with apps, buildings, cash flow, contracts, etc. Honestly, my gut says we are ahead of ourselves.
BTC is a public-facing, secure XLS w 8 columns. ETH, same, but with 30 columns and the ability to build macros. PeopleSoft (outdated Oracle apps technologies have > 10,000 tables (ETH, BTC...single table) with AT LEAST 150 columns. Blockchain is coming and real and amazing and i get it....but it also years away.
For those old enough...
1. CMGI
2. Copper Mountain
3. Commerce One
4. JDS Uniphase
5. Phone.com
6. US Web
All gone or damn near worthless. And whether we like it or not...ETH will MOST LIKELY go that way too. I AM NOT saying don't buy...don't hope...BUT I am DEFINITELY saying that there is no true clear path to cash that I can see. That i see NO (non-trading) app on my phone, connected to my corporate applications (Oracle, SAP, etc), none for my 6 YO, none used by my ex-wife...NOTHING yet.
If BTC breaks 53500...it will track to 47000. If it breaks 47000, see you at 41000ish. Will that be the bottom...truly, who knows. I believe it is coming AND I believe we are massively ahead of ourselves. BE CAREFUL
Comment
I LOVE Elon Musk!!!!Comment
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Closed short...will wait to reshort between the .5 and .681 fib linesEven went long for a quick scalp at 3820
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Closed at 3940, re-shorted at 3954, larger position. stop-loss at 3999 (probably too tight, but don't want to give back). Using fibs to estimate in and out.
The ceiling "should" be 3980 (.681).
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shorted more.moved stop to 3850. ETH now leading fall. more likely to flip, will re-short hirer. don't want to give back.
Comment
IMPORTANT WAY TO SUPER-SIZE GAINS...Now taking the additional unused margin from ETH short (as ETH goes down, creates unused or "free" margin) and shorting ADA...still up 7%.
;)
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moved stop to 3810...stopped outlooking to reshort when BTC gets firmly below 50,000 (ETH likely at 3900)
Comment
shorting ADA, seeking higher alpha...last man standing (still up 5%)
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