ETH has been on an absolute tear. After retesting its old 2018 all-time high, it marked a bottom at $1383 — a brutal -66% correction over 114 days from the $4109 top.
From there, ETH ripped +100% in just one month, followed by 40 days of consolidation, and now, over the past 28 days, it’s surged another +76%, currently trading around $3715 — all without any major correction.
So the big question:
What’s next? Are we near a short setup, or is it time to long?
Let’s break it down.
🧩 Key Technicals
➡️ Bounce Zone:
On June 22, ETH retested the 0.5 fib ($2131.63) of the prior 5-wave Elliott impulse, with extra confluence from:
➡️ Key Highs to Watch:
➡️ Fib Retracement Levels:
ETH has smashed through all major fibs, including the golden pocket (0.618–0.65) and 0.786 fib. The 0.886 fib at $3798.27 is the last major resistance, just above the $3746 key high.
At this zone, we also have:
Fair Value Gap (FVG)
Monthly Resistance
Negative Fib Extension Golden Pocket Target
➡️ Momentum Signal:
ETH is currently on its 8th consecutive bullish daily candle — historically, after 8–13 consecutive candles, price tends to cool off or correct. A sign to be cautious about longing here and consider profit-taking.
🔴 Short Trade Setup
Look for a potential SFP (swing failure pattern) at the key high $3746 to initiate a short trade.
This offers a low-risk setup with:
💡 Educational Insight: Why You Don’t Want to Long the Top
Markets often trap late longers near key highs or resistance zones — this is where smart money distributes while retail piles in emotionally.
Lesson: Look for zones of confluence (fib, VWAP, liquidity, FVG) and avoid chasing extended moves after multiple bullish candles.
Patience and confirmation at reversal points lead to higher-probability setups — you don’t need to catch every pump.
Final Thoughts
We’re approaching major highs, so this is a time for caution, not FOMO. Watch for reaction and potential reversals near $3750–$3850.
Stay sharp, manage risk — and remember, tops are where longs get trapped.
_________________________________
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Want breakdowns of other charts? Leave your requests below.
From there, ETH ripped +100% in just one month, followed by 40 days of consolidation, and now, over the past 28 days, it’s surged another +76%, currently trading around $3715 — all without any major correction.
So the big question:
What’s next? Are we near a short setup, or is it time to long?
Let’s break it down.
🧩 Key Technicals
➡️ Bounce Zone:
On June 22, ETH retested the 0.5 fib ($2131.63) of the prior 5-wave Elliott impulse, with extra confluence from:
- Anchored VWAP
- Speed fan 0.618
➡️ Key Highs to Watch:
- $3746 → recent local high
- $4109 → 2021 all-time high
➡️ Fib Retracement Levels:
ETH has smashed through all major fibs, including the golden pocket (0.618–0.65) and 0.786 fib. The 0.886 fib at $3798.27 is the last major resistance, just above the $3746 key high.
At this zone, we also have:
Fair Value Gap (FVG)
Monthly Resistance
Negative Fib Extension Golden Pocket Target
➡️ Momentum Signal:
ETH is currently on its 8th consecutive bullish daily candle — historically, after 8–13 consecutive candles, price tends to cool off or correct. A sign to be cautious about longing here and consider profit-taking.
🔴 Short Trade Setup
Look for a potential SFP (swing failure pattern) at the key high $3746 to initiate a short trade.
This offers a low-risk setup with:
- Entry: around $3746 (if SFP confirms)
- Target (TP): ~$3300
- Stop-loss: above SFP
- R:R ≈ 1:4+
💡 Educational Insight: Why You Don’t Want to Long the Top
Markets often trap late longers near key highs or resistance zones — this is where smart money distributes while retail piles in emotionally.
Lesson: Look for zones of confluence (fib, VWAP, liquidity, FVG) and avoid chasing extended moves after multiple bullish candles.
Patience and confirmation at reversal points lead to higher-probability setups — you don’t need to catch every pump.
Final Thoughts
We’re approaching major highs, so this is a time for caution, not FOMO. Watch for reaction and potential reversals near $3750–$3850.
Stay sharp, manage risk — and remember, tops are where longs get trapped.
_________________________________
💬 If you found this helpful, drop a like and comment!
Want breakdowns of other charts? Leave your requests below.
Note
🚨 ETH Quick UpdateThe 0.886 fib retracement just got hit and rejected, along with the 1.618 fib extension of the previous trading range, perfectly aligning with all the confluence reasons discussed earlier.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
🏆 Mastering Fibonacci for precision trading
🔹 Sharing high-probability trade setups
⚡ Unlock the power of technical analysis!
🔹 Sharing high-probability trade setups
⚡ Unlock the power of technical analysis!
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.