Ethereum. What shall we do and who is to blame?
Updated
The share of bitcoin in the total capitalization of the market has peaked since the beginning of the year, and equals 58 percent at the moment. Meanwhile, altcoins keep on storming their minimum values in search for bottom. And Ethereum is rushing into the unknown ahead of the whole planet, ignoring any encouraging comments about cryptocurrencies.
The epoch of weak altcoins will last at least until the index of dominance updates to the level of 62-65%. Then, 68% will be the last milestone on the way to a total eclipse of the era of altcoins, and Bitcoin will not be able to pass it very easily. In case it happens, only the top-10 old-timer dinosaurs of the altcoin population will come to life.
All sorts of scary stories that the fate of dot-coms will repeat, as cryptocurrencies have already jumped ahead of them having fallen by 80% since the beginning of the year, making market actors' hair stand on end, are bearing fruit. Faith is bleeding off the heart.
Even some market actors add fuel to the controversy.
For instance, Vitalik Buterin has recently said that the cryptocurrency market will no longer seek to new capital inflows, since making fuss over this topic was aimed at drawing attention to the blockchain technology itself. Coins, endlessly growing after certain news, have become a simple example of how technology can be introduced into everyday life, combining virtual and material worlds.
As for the price of his own token, he has spoken very ambiguously. The general idea is that Vitalik is very skeptical about the growth, and his opinion affects the morale of the market. News agencies misrepresent the words of the Ethereum founder in their own way.
We can interpret Vitalik's degrading mood in various manners, but we can see the following in the current situation. Ethereum developers agreed to lower the reward for miners to 2 ETH this autumn, while the Proof-of-stake algorithm was delayed for 12 months. Since a lot of people and companies are involved in mining Ethereum, the drop in its rate may be artificial. This drop is aimed at driving as many participants out of the mining market as possible, so that then, when the reward for solving a block decreases, the mining of Ethereum will be profitable. Most likely, in conditions of a reduced reward, the market will look for a new balance point of the cost by supporting the growth of the token exchange value. Such support can be lent by manufacturers of mining hardware.
In the future, the reward for mining will keep on decreasing, which may similarly affect the cost.
The current situation shows that, the trend to decline has not been broken yet, regardless of the reasons. The technical picture is very peculiar. There is an evident divergence, and any attempt to settle above 0.032 can enforce the impulse. But in this case, even the target of moving towards 0.036 looks fantastic, and it does not make sense to take a lead of it. The first signal for the reversal will already be at the end of a bounce from the support point, or when forming a full reversal pattern in the form of a double bottom or a candle pattern.
If we have a look at the ETH/USD chart, everything here is pessimistic too.
If we look at the token chart in detail, we will see a pattern of continuation of the trend, protracted from the previous decline.
The timing of consolidation has obviously decreased in time, which demonstrates that the buyers are more likely to leave the market than to enter it. Most likely, there will be an even more powerful upsell. A bounce to 224 is not impossible, and the decline may continue afterwards.
Based on the continuing trend pattern observed on the chart, we can see that the price is in the middle of the impulse at the moment, and, having preliminary tested out the level of $150, it will continue to decline towards $113.
It is likely that the cost of an Ethereum token will decrease faster than Bitcoin. It will be like this until the mentioned levels reach the targets of token decrease, and simultaneously reach the dominance index of 62, 65 and 68 values, and the cost of bitcoin of 5800, 5300 and 4800, respectively. It is ahead of the game to enter the coin before these values are achieved. At least, until the token gives an explicit signal for a reversal. In the current situation, it is better to wait out the market decline in Bitcoin, Stable Coin, or, if you are very conservative, in Fiat.
Globally, we will be able to talk about the reversal only if the downstream channel breaks out, but a breakout is not enough. The signal to enter the position comes in when a pattern is triggered. When coming to the consolidation zone 275, the upward movement is likely to resume with the target of 450. If this movement coincides with the matropattern, it is better to move out when the smaller value is reached.
On a global scale, we are expecting the growth. But we are still within a falling trend, and there are no visible signs of a reversal. As much as you'd like to buy an asset which has gone 85% down in value, the fact that it is cheap is not enough. It is September 2018, and if you think it is cheap, remember, that it can be even cheaper!
We do not want to guess about the reversal moment, so, we will publish the signal to a reversal in an update of the idea.
BeNice Team keeps a close eye on the outcome of this situation and keeps its finger on the pulse, ready to give a well-timed signal to act! Subscribe and do not miss the crucial moment! Ethereum is going to show itself!
The epoch of weak altcoins will last at least until the index of dominance updates to the level of 62-65%. Then, 68% will be the last milestone on the way to a total eclipse of the era of altcoins, and Bitcoin will not be able to pass it very easily. In case it happens, only the top-10 old-timer dinosaurs of the altcoin population will come to life.
All sorts of scary stories that the fate of dot-coms will repeat, as cryptocurrencies have already jumped ahead of them having fallen by 80% since the beginning of the year, making market actors' hair stand on end, are bearing fruit. Faith is bleeding off the heart.
Even some market actors add fuel to the controversy.
For instance, Vitalik Buterin has recently said that the cryptocurrency market will no longer seek to new capital inflows, since making fuss over this topic was aimed at drawing attention to the blockchain technology itself. Coins, endlessly growing after certain news, have become a simple example of how technology can be introduced into everyday life, combining virtual and material worlds.
As for the price of his own token, he has spoken very ambiguously. The general idea is that Vitalik is very skeptical about the growth, and his opinion affects the morale of the market. News agencies misrepresent the words of the Ethereum founder in their own way.
We can interpret Vitalik's degrading mood in various manners, but we can see the following in the current situation. Ethereum developers agreed to lower the reward for miners to 2 ETH this autumn, while the Proof-of-stake algorithm was delayed for 12 months. Since a lot of people and companies are involved in mining Ethereum, the drop in its rate may be artificial. This drop is aimed at driving as many participants out of the mining market as possible, so that then, when the reward for solving a block decreases, the mining of Ethereum will be profitable. Most likely, in conditions of a reduced reward, the market will look for a new balance point of the cost by supporting the growth of the token exchange value. Such support can be lent by manufacturers of mining hardware.
In the future, the reward for mining will keep on decreasing, which may similarly affect the cost.
The current situation shows that, the trend to decline has not been broken yet, regardless of the reasons. The technical picture is very peculiar. There is an evident divergence, and any attempt to settle above 0.032 can enforce the impulse. But in this case, even the target of moving towards 0.036 looks fantastic, and it does not make sense to take a lead of it. The first signal for the reversal will already be at the end of a bounce from the support point, or when forming a full reversal pattern in the form of a double bottom or a candle pattern.
If we have a look at the ETH/USD chart, everything here is pessimistic too.
If we look at the token chart in detail, we will see a pattern of continuation of the trend, protracted from the previous decline.
The timing of consolidation has obviously decreased in time, which demonstrates that the buyers are more likely to leave the market than to enter it. Most likely, there will be an even more powerful upsell. A bounce to 224 is not impossible, and the decline may continue afterwards.
Based on the continuing trend pattern observed on the chart, we can see that the price is in the middle of the impulse at the moment, and, having preliminary tested out the level of $150, it will continue to decline towards $113.
It is likely that the cost of an Ethereum token will decrease faster than Bitcoin. It will be like this until the mentioned levels reach the targets of token decrease, and simultaneously reach the dominance index of 62, 65 and 68 values, and the cost of bitcoin of 5800, 5300 and 4800, respectively. It is ahead of the game to enter the coin before these values are achieved. At least, until the token gives an explicit signal for a reversal. In the current situation, it is better to wait out the market decline in Bitcoin, Stable Coin, or, if you are very conservative, in Fiat.
Globally, we will be able to talk about the reversal only if the downstream channel breaks out, but a breakout is not enough. The signal to enter the position comes in when a pattern is triggered. When coming to the consolidation zone 275, the upward movement is likely to resume with the target of 450. If this movement coincides with the matropattern, it is better to move out when the smaller value is reached.
On a global scale, we are expecting the growth. But we are still within a falling trend, and there are no visible signs of a reversal. As much as you'd like to buy an asset which has gone 85% down in value, the fact that it is cheap is not enough. It is September 2018, and if you think it is cheap, remember, that it can be even cheaper!
We do not want to guess about the reversal moment, so, we will publish the signal to a reversal in an update of the idea.
BeNice Team keeps a close eye on the outcome of this situation and keeps its finger on the pulse, ready to give a well-timed signal to act! Subscribe and do not miss the crucial moment! Ethereum is going to show itself!
Note
Signal: Buy 215. Take profit 229. Stop 210,2Note
It is recommended to pull the stop on a minimum of every hour as it grows, without exposing the take-profit. At the current moment it is 223. The impulse is possible upwards.Note
shift Stop 225Note
The transaction is executed. The take profit was triggered at 225. The profit per transaction is 4,44 %. Time in position 9 hoursNote
Signal: Buy 203,7. Take profit 216. Stop 198Note
If to consider this token on a matropattern, movement from 50 periodny to 200 periodny MA matches the first launched purpose that can serve as the good trigger to a new impulse.Note
To move the stop in a breakevenNote
close the deal at the current price (208,26)Note
The transaction is executed. The profit per transaction is 4,44 %. Time in position 1 hour.Note
Excuse me. The profit per transaction is 2,18 %.Trade active
Signal: Buy 195,5. Take profit 203. Stop 192Trade closed: target reached
The transaction is executed. The profit per transaction is 3,69 %. Time in position 21 hoursNote
The level of buying is 197.4. The target is 204.67. Instead of a stop order, we would rather use "averaging", because the stop orders are being hunted. We will add levels for averaging to the update of ideas if the market continues to decline. Please, note that it is a high-risk transaction. The second wave of decline in the market with a breakout to 170 and below is possible.Trade closed: target reached
Note
The transaction is executed. The profit per transaction is 3,55 %. Time in position 4 days.Trade active
Signal: Buy 215,5. Take profit 223.Note
The target was achieved on November, 7. The income on this transaction is 4.13%. At the moment, we are waiting for the outcome of the situation to get a new signal.Note
The intermediate target of 150 we talked about earlier in this review has almost been reached. Below, we can see several more levels to go down. The main decline target is 113 $. The price can try to grow locally from the current level with a target of 175.Trade active
We would recommend purchasing from the level of 157. The target is 175.Note
The global target of $ 113 we set in September has been reached. Based on market conditions, the next target is $ 80. If you have already made this transaction with a part of your portfolio, keep it for a long-term hold. The next entry into the transaction is at levels below $ 90.
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