ETHEREUM ETHUSD - a comprehensive medium-term analysis!
Updated
Hello dear friends!
Here is my idea of Ethereum on the 3 day chart.
A picture says more than a thousand words. The long term trend line from March 2020 is broken in December 2021.
Zoom out to see it!
We also see different patterns.
1. A very long bearish rising wedge from 2017 to 2022
2. A bearish rising wedge from mid 2021 to now.
3. Possibly but not yet confirmed, an H&S with the neckline at 2671.
We are currently seeing rebounds in a downtrend!
Ethereum has clearly broken out of this bearish wedge to the downside and I am calculating it to be at the 0.382 fib level of 1058 USD.
I expect an eventual decline to the lower trend line of the large bearish rising wedge possibly even to 655.
This is then immediately the 0.5 fib level of the rising trendline (March 2020) which was broken in December 2021.
However, if Etherum rises above the stop at 4100 USD then we can expect a rise to the top of the long wedge .
Friends remember that the rising wedge is also visible after the (incredible) rise in the US indices. I expect exactly the same there. By the way, there has also been a Hindenburg Omen signal there recently and it is still ongoing. You can read all about Hindenburg Omen on the internet.
This scenario may well fit with the following points, among many others on shorter and longer term.
1. Enormous negative divergences on a macro level.
2. Rising interest rates due to gigantic inflation everywhere in the world. Caused by unlimited printing of money and growing debt. The only way to get rid of this mountain of debt is inflation! That is not what the markets want and eventually all the borrowed money that is now invested in the markets has to be returned.
3. The Russia-Ukraine conflict I wrote about before. The press is full of it.
4. The 4-year cycle that ended on January 1, 2022.
5. The downward trend in almost all crypto currencies. Lower bottoms and lower tops.
6. The europhoria and skyrocketing expectations. Everyone wants to buy crypto because of the huge increases, which are largely due to the money printed by the EU and the FED. That is the beginning of the end.
7. The energy crisis for which there is no solution. Everything must be green but there is no alternative for the citizens . Then the conflict with Russia which is the biggest supplier for gas in the EU.
8. Covid 19, is there soon an end with new medications and vaccins ? Hopefully yes but there is no certainty. The virus is mutating constantly and want to escape vaccins like bacteria with antibiotics.
Lot of negative elemants but we never know for 100% sure. Again if we can break the stop level and also in the indices the party can maybe continue for some time more but sooner or later the big dive will come as proven in history.
You can of course trade but go long with very strict stops as a warning. Money management is the key to keeping your capital.
Good luck dear friends!
Disclaimer This is my view, no advice to buy or sell. Also always do your own research!
--->> Dear friends please follow me for updates and give me support with a like 👍 if you like me to continue this work. Thanks 💚
Here is my idea of Ethereum on the 3 day chart.
A picture says more than a thousand words. The long term trend line from March 2020 is broken in December 2021.
Zoom out to see it!
We also see different patterns.
1. A very long bearish rising wedge from 2017 to 2022
2. A bearish rising wedge from mid 2021 to now.
3. Possibly but not yet confirmed, an H&S with the neckline at 2671.
We are currently seeing rebounds in a downtrend!
Ethereum has clearly broken out of this bearish wedge to the downside and I am calculating it to be at the 0.382 fib level of 1058 USD.
I expect an eventual decline to the lower trend line of the large bearish rising wedge possibly even to 655.
This is then immediately the 0.5 fib level of the rising trendline (March 2020) which was broken in December 2021.
However, if Etherum rises above the stop at 4100 USD then we can expect a rise to the top of the long wedge .
Friends remember that the rising wedge is also visible after the (incredible) rise in the US indices. I expect exactly the same there. By the way, there has also been a Hindenburg Omen signal there recently and it is still ongoing. You can read all about Hindenburg Omen on the internet.
This scenario may well fit with the following points, among many others on shorter and longer term.
1. Enormous negative divergences on a macro level.
2. Rising interest rates due to gigantic inflation everywhere in the world. Caused by unlimited printing of money and growing debt. The only way to get rid of this mountain of debt is inflation! That is not what the markets want and eventually all the borrowed money that is now invested in the markets has to be returned.
3. The Russia-Ukraine conflict I wrote about before. The press is full of it.
4. The 4-year cycle that ended on January 1, 2022.
5. The downward trend in almost all crypto currencies. Lower bottoms and lower tops.
6. The europhoria and skyrocketing expectations. Everyone wants to buy crypto because of the huge increases, which are largely due to the money printed by the EU and the FED. That is the beginning of the end.
7. The energy crisis for which there is no solution. Everything must be green but there is no alternative for the citizens . Then the conflict with Russia which is the biggest supplier for gas in the EU.
8. Covid 19, is there soon an end with new medications and vaccins ? Hopefully yes but there is no certainty. The virus is mutating constantly and want to escape vaccins like bacteria with antibiotics.
Lot of negative elemants but we never know for 100% sure. Again if we can break the stop level and also in the indices the party can maybe continue for some time more but sooner or later the big dive will come as proven in history.
You can of course trade but go long with very strict stops as a warning. Money management is the key to keeping your capital.
Good luck dear friends!
Disclaimer This is my view, no advice to buy or sell. Also always do your own research!
--->> Dear friends please follow me for updates and give me support with a like 👍 if you like me to continue this work. Thanks 💚
Note
Comment:I zoomed out for you dear friends on this chart because not everybody can see the complete large wedge. So here it is.
There are 3 bearish rising wedges in play, 1,2 and (see the chart)
--> Note that there is no panic at all for the moment! <--
Note
Note
Link to BTC posts:Dear friends, here are also links to my posts from November and December for Bitcoin the leader.
The targets where hit exactly.
Wish you all very good profits and most of all safe trading!
Note
Note
Note
UpdateDear friends Ethereum is now at 2550 and has hit exactly the support leven in the chart. Of course, we can expect a rebound soon (see the trajectory in the chart). We see a higher volume but no real panic yet. Possibly the rebound is the formation of the right H&S shoulder.
Always be careful with catching a falling knife. In my opinion we are far from a bottom. A real bottom is accompanied by very high volume and that is something to keep an eye on.
Good luck with trading!
Note
Russia's central bank proposed on Thursday to ban the use and mining of crypto-currencies on Russian territory, citing threats to financial stability, citizen welfare and its sovereignty over monetary policy.The move is the latest in a global crackdown on crypto-currencies, with governments from Asia to the US concerned that the highly volatile, privately run digital currencies could undermine their control of financial and monetary systems.
Russia opposed crypto-currencies for years, claiming they could be used for money laundering or terrorist financing. It finally granted them legal status in 2020, but banned their use as a means of payment.
The Russians are second only to Binance in terms of the number of traders. If the total market cap becomes too large, it will even threaten the US and Europe. They want to restrict everything. It is annoying to hear this, but unfortunately it is a reality. That is why a good fall is not a bad thing, so that it will be quiet again about crypto currencies. Then the problem will also move to the background for the central banks all over the world. That is a good thing so that we can have another huge bullrun without to much restrictions (because the marketcap is no treat) in the end or possible next year.
The most important is that we get not a war in Europe but as we all know it is not looking very good for the moment!
Good luck and happy trading dear friends!
Note
UPMOVEDear Friends,
It's been a battlefield for all cryptos and we're not out of it yet but at this point I expect a correction upwards in the downtrend.
Price now: 2778 USD
Target between 3000 and maximum 3200 USD.
Please note that this is a counter movement as can be seen in the chart according to the red trajectory. This movement, I think may possibly last until the end of February early March after which we will continue the downtrend again.
Please note, friends that this is not an advice but just my own view for Ethereum.
I wish you lots of profits and safe trading!
Note
Dear friends,My target from 3000 USD (written at the 1st of February) , was hit exactly today on the 5th of February. 4 days later.
Possible we even go higher to 3200 usd but nevertheless, this still is a counter trend move in a downtrend. The downtrend can only change by series of higher highs and higher lows. I expect now a sideways move and then continue the downtrend. To change the trend we need also good news. Very difficult with all the problems in the world today.
Wish you all good profits!
Note
UPDATEThe price for Ethereum is 3017 USD as of this moment (Feb 5, 2022).
The next target is a round number of 1000 USD and as date I expect before April, 30, 2022.
I will post a new idea for Ethereum when we are there!
Wish you all good luck and nice profits!
See you there friends;-)
Note
UPDATEDear Friends,
The situation is changing drastically in the world today. Russia can now step by step continue to conquer territory in the Ukraine. No violent situation with missiles and bombers as all thought in the EU and US but just very small but treacherous steps towards the goal.
Let's not forget that after the fall of the wall NATO promised not to expand to the east. They did so anyway and did not keep their promises! That Russia feels threatened is not so strange. The ambition of Europe to connect more and more countries is unstoppable. Now we will soon have energy prices that will become unaffordable with a huge effect on inflation, interest rates, etc. Not a good prospect for the stock markets and crypto currencies.
As for a possible crash, I do not expect this to happen immediately as the steps of Russia will follow little by little. This is all the more treacherous for the financial markets. We are sinking further and further, little by little. This is much more risky than a short and deep drop on a short term.
Ethereum is following the trajectory pretty closely from the chart and so I expect this to continue. Ethereum is now forming the right shoulder of the H&S formation and the technical picture is deteriorating because of this as well. So count on ranges being broken downwards again over time.
We will slowly see where this is going but after a deeper and longer correction there is, in my opinion, much more chance of substantial price increases. This is because it always goes like this in the financial markets. Hence dear friends, patience, patience and more patience and certainly no fomo because there are many negative factors at the same time. So don't be in a hurry to buy! Short term trading is of course quite different with well placed stops!
Good luck with trading and don't forget to apply money management (1-2% rule) and stops if you still want to trade next year also.
This is of course not an advice but my personal view on the situation and I advise everybody to do their own research. You'll learn a lot from this and you'll also be less dependent on others which will make you more confident when trading!
Note
IMPORTANTFriends, I expect ETH to hit 500 USD between 1st of November and maximal 1st of January 2023. Probably somewhere in the middle of these 2 dates.
Expect bouncing up and down around 1000 USD and lower, but that is all noise.
Remember that NOT trading is also making money if you can buy ETH at these levels. You don't need to go short.
What goes up, so fast, must come down, and that is what will happen.
Good luck and happy trading!
Note
Some news here where we can see how the war is escalating.Dmitry Medvedev, Russia's Deputy Chairman of the Security Council, again threatened the West with the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine, saying,
“Imagine Russia being forced to use the most formidable weapon against the Ukrainian regime, which has committed a large-scale act of aggression, which is dangerous for the existence of our state. I believe that even in this situation, NATO will not intervene directly in the conflict. After all, the security of Washington, London, and Brussels is much more important for the North Atlantic Alliance than the fate of Ukraine, which no one needs, even if it is abundantly supplied with various weapons.”
Be prepared because anything can happen as the west/ Ukraine as well as Russia, will both not stop the war until their goals are reached.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.