I do take low probability trades too, WHEN they have a high reward that is on average achieved (like last ripple call) 1:6 RiskReward so in theory 14% to be right and 86% chance to be wrong, just in theory. I'm more accurate than that and know what can be expected, and that's all thats needed.
Sorry for the wall of text, maybe some people wanted to know.
Now what everyone wants to know: What's the chance of this analysis being correct? As i said i'm confident. As a number it would be 95% winchance