Scenario in the case that 13th June was the bottom

Just for fun, a rather excessively detailed prediction, lets see how far off reality turns out to be.

ETH is currently approaching the apex of an equilateral triangle - it could break up or down. In the case that it breaks up it will likely signal that 13th June was the turning point to a more bullish period. In this case 13th June could be the start of an elliot impulse wave upwards. It's likely we could bounce off the resistance at $540 and retrace 50% to support at $495 for waves 1 and 2. Wave 3 target would then be around $615 . Need to watched out for parallel channel behaviour below 4 perfectly aligned points towards the ends of the current formation in the triangle.. in that case it could push the lower half of the triangle out a little, so don't panic if it dips below the current lower trend line for a short period, it could be a bear trap.

The behaviour and direction of break is dependent on BTC which is in a similar formation. It looks like BTC could come back down to $6415 before attempting a break upwards, so if I decide to go long I might look for an entry point around $490 in the next few hours.

Note

So the triangle broke upwards and followed the idea pretty well. I went long around $490 as planned, and exited a little early when the breakout stalled at $515 - still a decent trade though. The lower half of the channel was pushed out further than I thought and the spike topped out a little higher, widening the parallel channel, which is now more questionable. It would be nice to see validation of this with the next dip and turn at the rising trend line. This may happen directly from our current position or we may see another test of the resistance at $526. Seeing that and then a small retracement to $506 - $510 before turning back up would be idea as it would then create an ascending triangle, signalling preparation for the expected break up to $540. In that case I will go long once it looks to be turning in the $510 region.

I should be less conservative with the exit in that case as if indeed this is a return to a bullish market it could push the target to the next resistance at $570, so maybe DCA exit between $540 and £570.

Note

My intention for next trades if the idea pans out. I might try a small short tonight if we get test of resistance at $526 and rejection. Then a bigger long in the morning. I think that trading the break from the current flag is too risky as it could go either way - it looks like a bull flag, so probably up, but with the $526 resistance right above it's big risk for little reward

Note

BTC analysis very similar, the flag looks more like a descending wedge, which suggests to me we will make the jump up before going back down. Talk of BTC passing 7,000 today I think is overly optimistic, I think we first need a retrace to 6500, then we can shoot for 7300 when ETH is going for $610.

Note

It went up first, even sooner than expected, rejected at $528. I went short at $527. This is a risky one as BTC could still break up which will drive ETH up again, so only a small position. Target around 506 - 507, but I may bottle it if we get to $515 (or BTC to 6645) or at least DCA/run a tight stop from there.

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well my short hit the stop as ETH went ballistic, and even without BTC breaking. We hit the $540 target and no sign of retrace yet.. could it even break the $540 level?

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An alternate analysis and wave count. Is there still a long left in ETH today?

spruce_g00se

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spruce_g00se