Introduction: In our previous TradingView analyses, we defended the bullish recovery of the crypto market since the beginning of April, particularly for the bitcoin price. The latter seems to be positively correlated with the global liquidity trend (you can reread all our latest crypto analyses in our analysis history directly from the main page of our TradingView profile).
In this new analysis, we discuss the return of Ethereum's outperformance of Bitcoin.
1) ETH/USD bullish cycle: what are the theoretical price targets highlighted by technical analysis of the financial markets?
The current bullish cycle for ETH/USD began in the summer of 2022, with prices rebounding from the all-time high of the penultimate cycle, which peaked at $1150 in January 2018. A chartist base for a bullish reversal had developed between July and November 2022, before the uptrend began shortly after the FTX bankruptcy.
A well-constructed uptrend then took place until March 2024, with an intermediate high reached at $4,000, a resistance that three times produced a bearish rejection effect. The ETH/USD rate finally rallied back above major support at $1150/1350 and now appears to have resumed a bullish bottom trajectory in alignment with the bitcoin price.
2) Ethereum VS Bitcoin, the great catch-up may have begun
The question investors are now asking is whether or not Ethereum is in a position to outperform bitcoin in the coming weeks. To answer this question, we need to look at both fundamental and technical aspects.
On the fundamental level, the very recent “Pectra” update considerably improves the functioning of the Ethereum blockchain, notably by reducing transaction costs. This update could be the fundamental element underpinning a return to Ethereum's outperformance of Bitcoin.
In terms of technical analysis, it is the ETH/BTC ratio that helps determine Ethereum's cycles of outperformance and underperformance against Bitcoin. Technical analysis of the ETH/BTC ratio highlights the presence of long-term chart support, which seems to have enabled a clear rebound in the ETH/BTC rate.
Consequently, if this major support remains preserved over the coming weeks, then yes, it's becoming increasingly likely that ETH/USD will do better than BTC/USD over the next few weeks on the crypto-currency market. This market view would be invalidated in the event of a breakout of the major support mentioned and which is represented on the chart below.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
In this new analysis, we discuss the return of Ethereum's outperformance of Bitcoin.
1) ETH/USD bullish cycle: what are the theoretical price targets highlighted by technical analysis of the financial markets?
The current bullish cycle for ETH/USD began in the summer of 2022, with prices rebounding from the all-time high of the penultimate cycle, which peaked at $1150 in January 2018. A chartist base for a bullish reversal had developed between July and November 2022, before the uptrend began shortly after the FTX bankruptcy.
A well-constructed uptrend then took place until March 2024, with an intermediate high reached at $4,000, a resistance that three times produced a bearish rejection effect. The ETH/USD rate finally rallied back above major support at $1150/1350 and now appears to have resumed a bullish bottom trajectory in alignment with the bitcoin price.
2) Ethereum VS Bitcoin, the great catch-up may have begun
The question investors are now asking is whether or not Ethereum is in a position to outperform bitcoin in the coming weeks. To answer this question, we need to look at both fundamental and technical aspects.
On the fundamental level, the very recent “Pectra” update considerably improves the functioning of the Ethereum blockchain, notably by reducing transaction costs. This update could be the fundamental element underpinning a return to Ethereum's outperformance of Bitcoin.
In terms of technical analysis, it is the ETH/BTC ratio that helps determine Ethereum's cycles of outperformance and underperformance against Bitcoin. Technical analysis of the ETH/BTC ratio highlights the presence of long-term chart support, which seems to have enabled a clear rebound in the ETH/BTC rate.
Consequently, if this major support remains preserved over the coming weeks, then yes, it's becoming increasingly likely that ETH/USD will do better than BTC/USD over the next few weeks on the crypto-currency market. This market view would be invalidated in the event of a breakout of the major support mentioned and which is represented on the chart below.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
This content is written by Vincent Ganne for Swissquote.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
This content is written by Vincent Ganne for Swissquote.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.