ETH-USD Bearish Flag Pattern on 4Hr
Updated
Looking at ETH the past couple weeks, I am predicting the bearish trend to continue despite recent pushes upward. ETH arguably has been in a bearish trend since mid-late January, 2018. I am forecasting that this trend will continue in the short-term with another substantial price decline on the horizon followed by sideways trading and a slow recovery over the next 3 - 6 months. My prediction does not include any 3 - 6 month window price targets, I am expecting my prediction to be valid for the next couple of days. After that window I will be reevaluating the trend and non-technicals.
This chart's technical analysis is based on 4hr windows beginning with the $284 price range before the significant price decline ETH had seen. This downward momentum was predicted perfectly by Audicted with his ETH-USD 4hr Descending Triangle Continuation. From that prediction point ETH dropped out of the $284 range down into $170 territory. From there another bear flag pattern was charted from the September 11th, 2018, low. This bear flag captured the subsequent upward momentum that could not break the $245+ range. Afterwards the price fell back into the low $200 range, in line with the bear flag pattern analysis. While the price did not fall back into a $170 price target at that time, I believe we can expect another price decline in a couple of days based on another bearish flag forming off of the bearish flag charted on September 11th extending through September 24th.
As you can see in my chart I am seeing a bearish flag forming from the September 24th low with coverage extending to October 1st, 2018.
I am calling a SHORT entry point from $235-$245, depending on your risk tolerance, with an exit right before $200. I have a tight stop loss of roughly 5% extending to $256, the reason for this stop loss is related to recent increases in volume that may derail this prediction. The exit point of $200 allows for a gain of over 18% from a $245 price point entry. If it breaks below $200 we could see some interesting price movement all the way into the $170 range if the previous bear flag holds up. I will be taking profit at $200 and then will consider my reentry from there.
This chart's technical analysis is based on 4hr windows beginning with the $284 price range before the significant price decline ETH had seen. This downward momentum was predicted perfectly by Audicted with his ETH-USD 4hr Descending Triangle Continuation. From that prediction point ETH dropped out of the $284 range down into $170 territory. From there another bear flag pattern was charted from the September 11th, 2018, low. This bear flag captured the subsequent upward momentum that could not break the $245+ range. Afterwards the price fell back into the low $200 range, in line with the bear flag pattern analysis. While the price did not fall back into a $170 price target at that time, I believe we can expect another price decline in a couple of days based on another bearish flag forming off of the bearish flag charted on September 11th extending through September 24th.
As you can see in my chart I am seeing a bearish flag forming from the September 24th low with coverage extending to October 1st, 2018.
I am calling a SHORT entry point from $235-$245, depending on your risk tolerance, with an exit right before $200. I have a tight stop loss of roughly 5% extending to $256, the reason for this stop loss is related to recent increases in volume that may derail this prediction. The exit point of $200 allows for a gain of over 18% from a $245 price point entry. If it breaks below $200 we could see some interesting price movement all the way into the $170 range if the previous bear flag holds up. I will be taking profit at $200 and then will consider my reentry from there.
Note
I have updated my analysis as the trend has continued to present itself. If you would like to follow the updated charts, and new suggested entry points, see my published update;
I suggest that anyone who may be interested in trading this idea should definitely take the time to review the updates and see the new suggested entry points based upon market movements in the three day period that has occurred after this original post.
Trade closed: target reached
Last night I entered this trade at 2223.50/ETH and kept my position open until I closed out at 217.50/ETH. This was a quick turnaround for a 2.68% gain. Nothing major, but I entered the trade at 25x leverage which netted a nice 67%+ gain on this trade.
ETH did not drop as much as I had anticipated on the cross so I closed out the position when I noticed support forming above $217.50. The price has since stabilized. I will be watching this trend over the next couple days to determine if I want to enter again or if a short position is even viable.
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