ETH Distribution Playing Out After Clean Accumulation Target Hit
This is a follow-up to my last ETH idea, where I called for accumulation and a breakout from the falling wedge — price hit the exact target I mapped out, and since then, the behavior has shifted.
We are now seeing the classic signs of distribution forming. It began with smart money stepping in selling into strength, which led into preliminary supply. That was followed by a strong climatic volume push into a buying climax, the heavy volume came in right at the top, and since then, we’ve seen a reaction down, a weak bounce (secondary test), and now a potential sign of weakness.
The delta has been confirming the distribution as well. It showed bearish divergence at the buying climax, showing aggressive selling happening even as price pushed up. Now with this move down, we’re seeing increasing negative delta confirming supply is in control. Volume is also heavier on the drops, confirming distribution rather than re-accumulation.
After a sign of weakness like this, we usually get one more push up into a last point of supply — a weaker rally that gets sold into before the real markdown begins. Be aware of a possible trap move above the secondary test or buying climax, but the structure suggests the highs are likely in for now.
Whether this plays out clean or gets messy with one more fakeout, the context has seemd to shift. Smart money appears to be offloading, and delta continues to confirm it. Bias flips bearish until proven otherwise.
Overall, I believe the recent up move was a stop hunt and ETH has much more downside ahead.
We are now seeing the classic signs of distribution forming. It began with smart money stepping in selling into strength, which led into preliminary supply. That was followed by a strong climatic volume push into a buying climax, the heavy volume came in right at the top, and since then, we’ve seen a reaction down, a weak bounce (secondary test), and now a potential sign of weakness.
The delta has been confirming the distribution as well. It showed bearish divergence at the buying climax, showing aggressive selling happening even as price pushed up. Now with this move down, we’re seeing increasing negative delta confirming supply is in control. Volume is also heavier on the drops, confirming distribution rather than re-accumulation.
After a sign of weakness like this, we usually get one more push up into a last point of supply — a weaker rally that gets sold into before the real markdown begins. Be aware of a possible trap move above the secondary test or buying climax, but the structure suggests the highs are likely in for now.
Whether this plays out clean or gets messy with one more fakeout, the context has seemd to shift. Smart money appears to be offloading, and delta continues to confirm it. Bias flips bearish until proven otherwise.
Overall, I believe the recent up move was a stop hunt and ETH has much more downside ahead.
Trade active
Since my initial post at the first Sign of Weakness, price action has continued to align with classic wyckoff distribution behavior.-After the Last Point of Supply (LPSY) and a breakdown into the Sign of Weakness (SOW #2), we've seen a sharp rally back up — but it appears to be forming a LPSY #2, right into the prior breakdown zone. I've identified a possible redistribution pattern as well. (yellow). With it being Lunar Day 22, a day associated with realizations and culmination, the energy fits the narrative of a final trap or distribution event before further downside.
Trade closed: stop reached
Price seems to be holding at the upthrust, suggesting it could be a sign of strength in accumulation not a redistribution. If so, a possible UTAD (upthrust after distribution) could be forming on the larger pattern to trap buyer. be on the look out for a quick move above the secondary test or buying climaxNote
Volume and price action are still suggesting this is Last point of supply. Further downside should resume. Note
Not going to lie, ETH LOOKS bullish just off structure, almost had me second guessing. But digging deeper into volume, delta, relative strength of price/volume I am seeing a different story. There seems to be another distribution pattern playing out, disguised as a spring and test in accumulation. -Looking at the delta I am seeing quite a lot of bearish divergence on up moves, hinting that buyers are getting absorbed. Buy delta is decreasing on up moves and overall throughout the consolidation, even when price has made a new high.
-The relative strength of price has been dominating over the relative strength of volume through the consolidation. The shows that volume is not supporting the up moves.
-The distribution labeled in yellow shows that we would have a final move coming up to trap buyers before a quick reversal.
Note
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.