Long

Ethereum/ETHUSDT Long Setup (H4/Daily)

Updated

Hello, traders!

I stumbled upon this pattern thanks to DLavrov's idea:

As (quite unfortunately!) my platform is not offering cryptocurrencies trading, I'm usually not checking them, but this setup definitely captured my attention.

Perfectly shaped wave almost reached point 5 now. If the resistance around this level stands, I would expect it to go North all the way up to planned target (point 6).

Even though I can't trade it myself, I decided to publish this idea anyway as in fact it looks like a very interesting long project to me.

GL All!

Note

Today (11/07) the price made a good attempt of forming point 5.

Ethereum descended to 170 level and slowly climbed to 189 afterwards.

Both RSI divergence at H4 and especially significant volume build-up at this point are speaking in favour of this.

For strong confirmation of trend change, the price needs to return back to the body of the pattern by crossing 1-3-5 line (20x area). This move should be supported by significant volume to ensure its further successful development.

Note

Today (12/07), the price returned to the internal structure of the wave. Being supported by RSI and solid volume spike while crossing 1-3-5 line, its initial target is line 2-4.
It is possible that the price will re-test 1-3-5 (20x) area once again prior to that move. If this line (2-4) is broken, the next target will be point 6.

Note

Minor mutually opposite waves formed around point 5 of yellow WW.
Depending on which one prevails, the price will either return back to the body of major pattern or will keep its descend to new lows.

Note

The red pattern took over and the price followed to new low. Even though new purple wave was formed, it is not supported by divergence/volume. Technically speaking, the price is still in the "sweet zone" of the yellow pattern, but there are no signs of reversal of downtrend which can be considered to be true only if the price returns back to 20x area.

Note

The price bounced from point 5 of purple pattern. This move was supported by both RSI divergence and the largest volume since mid march 2017. The question whether the price manages to breakthrough line 2-4 or continues its current move to the South remains and the answer to it will likely define the future short/mid term trend direction.

Note

Orange bearish wave formed at m15 time frame. While being supported by RSI divergence, at the present moment this possible short WW is not being supported by volume dynamics change.
If this attempt to reverse the beginning of uptrend fails and this minor wave is broken, the next targets will be line 2-4 of purple pattern and return to 20x area.

Note

The price confirmed the reverse of the trend by breaking lines 2-4 of purple and yellow patterns and staying above these formations.

The way to planned point 6 is opened now.

Note

After reaching point 6 of purple pattern, the price tried, but didn't manage to breakthrough line 1-4. Taking into consideration RSI confirming this *local downtrend along with consequently lowering volume, it is possible that ETHUSD will retest 19x (or even lower along purple line 2-4) area once again.

If Ethereum continues with significant upward move backed by solid confirmation data (especially volume!), the next TP remains at 42x level.

However, if it doesn't, caution is advised due to all the factors previously mentioned above.

Note

Looking at the chart retrospectively, the price retraced to 18x area at the very end of July. Then, the bulls prevailed and the price advanced to 30x area making its already halfway to originally planned target at point 6.

OceanBlue

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by DLavrov

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