Hello traders :
Let's analyse bearish movement of price action of pair.. Since price action closed below Supertrend support in 4hr chart and supertrend turned red , we have seen price moving lower significally with resistance of trendline drawn on chart...
However during COVID we have seen AUD /NZD etc to weaken and safe haven currencies to be getting stronger , but despite of current geopolitical situation in europe including Ukraine & Russia AUD/NZD kept on rising against their pairs..
Now looking at COT data we can notice that hedge funds/ banks are already SHORT on AUD
Long Short Net Position
11,692 98,386 = - 86 , 694 Net position in negative .
So what we can possibily see currently is that BIG players were already short in AUD and now geopolitical condition suggests more of weakness in AUD/NZD where as GOLD /USD / JPY / CHF may rise signifcantly if situation evolves in negative way ....
However AUD is still strengthning .... this suggests that potentially FUNDS are repositioning themselves to SELL AUD again at better price and currently exiting their positions of AUD , so maybe current strength of AUD may be temporary and lets wait for market to adjust itself to real world events and we wait to BUY EURAUD or SELL AUDJPY AUDUSD etc as per technical setups..
do comment your views on this idea...
thanks.
Let's analyse bearish movement of price action of pair.. Since price action closed below Supertrend support in 4hr chart and supertrend turned red , we have seen price moving lower significally with resistance of trendline drawn on chart...
However during COVID we have seen AUD /NZD etc to weaken and safe haven currencies to be getting stronger , but despite of current geopolitical situation in europe including Ukraine & Russia AUD/NZD kept on rising against their pairs..
Now looking at COT data we can notice that hedge funds/ banks are already SHORT on AUD
Long Short Net Position
11,692 98,386 = - 86 , 694 Net position in negative .
So what we can possibily see currently is that BIG players were already short in AUD and now geopolitical condition suggests more of weakness in AUD/NZD where as GOLD /USD / JPY / CHF may rise signifcantly if situation evolves in negative way ....
However AUD is still strengthning .... this suggests that potentially FUNDS are repositioning themselves to SELL AUD again at better price and currently exiting their positions of AUD , so maybe current strength of AUD may be temporary and lets wait for market to adjust itself to real world events and we wait to BUY EURAUD or SELL AUDJPY AUDUSD etc as per technical setups..
do comment your views on this idea...
thanks.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.