Historically, seasonality data supports a bullish outlook for the EURCAD currency pair. However, the COT report on non-commercial positions does not align with this bullishness, showing a reversal trend against EUR relative to CAD. While CAD exhibits stronger endogenous positive sentiment than EUR, which challenges the bullish outlook for EUR, overall endogenous factors still favor EUR due to a significant rise in retail sales. Conversely, CAD's sentiment is improving due to a notable increase in manufacturing data and number of orders. Overall, a combination of leading economic indicators, along with endogenous and exogenous factors—supported by growth in real GDP aligned with global GDP—supports a bullish stance on EURCAD.
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