Hello,
🇪🇺 EUR/CHF: Can PMI Green Shoots Power a Breakout?
📈 Fundamental Spark: Eurozone PMI Upside?
Stronger-than-expected PMIs this week could lift the euro, even against the safe haven Swiss franc.
Solid data would suggest the Eurozone economy is weathering trade tensions better than expected.
ECB officials (like Wunsch & Villeroy) have pushed back against aggressive rate cut bets, signaling:
“The easing cycle is neither finished nor automatic.”
🧠 Key takeaway: Bullish PMIs would reinforce the idea that the ECB may slow down or delay cuts, narrowing the gap vs. the SNB.
💬 Swiss Franc Watch:
CHF is trading near intervention-watch levels as USD/CHF recently hit a 10-year low.
SNB might step in if franc strength continues to threaten exports or inflation outlooks.
📊 EUR/CHF Technical Setup
🔺 Pattern Watch: Ascending Triangle
Resistance Zone: 0.9340 – 0.9351 (R1 Pivot Point)
Support Line: Steadily rising lows = buyers stepping in
🔍 Momentum Clues:
✅ Bullish candlesticks forming around resistance
✅ 100 SMA > 200 SMA crossover = Bullish bias confirmed
📍 Upside Targets (If Breakout Holds):
Price Level Reason
0.9400 Previous swing high
0.9500 April highs
0.9550 Extended risk-on target
⚖️ Trading Scenario Summary:
Scenario Implication EUR/CHF Bias
✅ Strong PMIs + ECB hawkish tone Rate cut bets fade Bullish
⚠️ Weak PMIs + risk-off flows Safe haven CHF demand rises Bearish
😐 Mixed data Rangebound action Neutral-to-slight bullish
🧭 Final Thoughts:
Keep an eye on PMI surprises, ECB rhetoric, and CHF sensitivity to risk and intervention speculation.
If EUR/CHF holds above 0.9350 with strong momentum, upside continuation becomes more likely.
📌 Breakout + Risk-On = Rally Fuel
🇪🇺 Eurozone Flash PMIs in Focus: Will Tariffs Tip the Scale?
📅 Event Date:
🗓 April 23 (Wednesday)
⏰ Starting 7:15 am GMT
(Use your Forex Market Hours tool to convert!)
🔍 What’s at Stake?
As global trade tensions intensify, Germany and France – the eurozone’s powerhouses – are under pressure. With the U.S. floating higher tariffs, markets are watching this PMI release closely for signs of economic fallout.
📊 PMI Forecast Snapshot:
Indicator Forecast Previous Bias
🇩🇪 Germany Manufacturing PMI 47.5 48.3 🔻
🇩🇪 Germany Services PMI 50.3 50.9 🔻
🇫🇷 France Manufacturing PMI 47.9 48.5 🔻
🇫🇷 France Services PMI 47.6 47.9 🔻
🇪🇺 Euro Area Manufacturing PMI 47.4 48.6 🔻
🇪🇺 Euro Area Services PMI 50.4 51.0 🔻
📉 Readings below 50 signal contraction.
📈 Above 50 means expansion.
💬 Why It Matters for EUR Traders
Weak PMI prints → 📉 Euro likely to fall
↳ Could fuel ECB rate cut expectations
↳ Bearish EUR bias vs. GBP, CHF, or JPY
Surprise resilience → 📈 Euro may hold up
↳ Especially vs. commodity currencies in risk-off mode (AUD, NZD, CAD)
↳ Could even bounce vs. USD if greenback selling continues
🧠 What Happened in Past Releases?
📅 March 24, 2025
🇫🇷 & 🇩🇪 Services = 🔻
Manufacturing = 🔺
🧊 Cooled ECB rate cut bets
EUR dropped early, stabilized later on relief over potential U.S. auto tariff exemptions
📅 February 21, 2025
PMIs = Net contraction, especially manufacturing
EUR dipped amid auto tariff risks and Russia-Ukraine tensions
📅 January 24, 2025
PMIs beat forecasts (still < 50 though)
Trump softened China tariff tone → EUR 🚀 early in session
Held gains in risk-on backdrop
🌍 Macro Backdrop Check
🧨 Ongoing global trade war
U.S. & China escalate with triple-digit tariffs
Markets fear supply chain collapse and global slowdown
🧭 Risk sentiment = fragile
If pessimism lingers → 💵 USD may stay under pressure
EUR reaction could be short-lived unless data is decisive
🔮 Trading Scenarios
Scenario Implication EUR Bias
Weaker-than-expected PMIs Tariff damage confirmed Bearish EUR
PMIs beat forecasts Services resilience Limited EUR support
Mixed results Choppy, rangebound action Wait for clarity
🧠 Pro tip: EUR often reacts short-term to PMI releases. Strong directional moves typically need uniform results or bigger catalysts (e.g., ECB or Fed news).
🛡️ Final Tips:
Watch the PMI trend across Germany, France, and the Eurozone
Consider the bigger macro picture (e.g., U.S. trade policy, China growth)
Don’t skip your risk management setup
👉 Wait for the data, spot the bias, and trade with discipline.
📈 Good luck out there!
The Support and Resistance outlined in green and red are the respective support/resistance for this pair currently for 1M-1Y timeframes!
No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost
TradeWithTheTrend3344
🇪🇺 EUR/CHF: Can PMI Green Shoots Power a Breakout?
📈 Fundamental Spark: Eurozone PMI Upside?
Stronger-than-expected PMIs this week could lift the euro, even against the safe haven Swiss franc.
Solid data would suggest the Eurozone economy is weathering trade tensions better than expected.
ECB officials (like Wunsch & Villeroy) have pushed back against aggressive rate cut bets, signaling:
“The easing cycle is neither finished nor automatic.”
🧠 Key takeaway: Bullish PMIs would reinforce the idea that the ECB may slow down or delay cuts, narrowing the gap vs. the SNB.
💬 Swiss Franc Watch:
CHF is trading near intervention-watch levels as USD/CHF recently hit a 10-year low.
SNB might step in if franc strength continues to threaten exports or inflation outlooks.
📊 EUR/CHF Technical Setup
🔺 Pattern Watch: Ascending Triangle
Resistance Zone: 0.9340 – 0.9351 (R1 Pivot Point)
Support Line: Steadily rising lows = buyers stepping in
🔍 Momentum Clues:
✅ Bullish candlesticks forming around resistance
✅ 100 SMA > 200 SMA crossover = Bullish bias confirmed
📍 Upside Targets (If Breakout Holds):
Price Level Reason
0.9400 Previous swing high
0.9500 April highs
0.9550 Extended risk-on target
⚖️ Trading Scenario Summary:
Scenario Implication EUR/CHF Bias
✅ Strong PMIs + ECB hawkish tone Rate cut bets fade Bullish
⚠️ Weak PMIs + risk-off flows Safe haven CHF demand rises Bearish
😐 Mixed data Rangebound action Neutral-to-slight bullish
🧭 Final Thoughts:
Keep an eye on PMI surprises, ECB rhetoric, and CHF sensitivity to risk and intervention speculation.
If EUR/CHF holds above 0.9350 with strong momentum, upside continuation becomes more likely.
📌 Breakout + Risk-On = Rally Fuel
🇪🇺 Eurozone Flash PMIs in Focus: Will Tariffs Tip the Scale?
📅 Event Date:
🗓 April 23 (Wednesday)
⏰ Starting 7:15 am GMT
(Use your Forex Market Hours tool to convert!)
🔍 What’s at Stake?
As global trade tensions intensify, Germany and France – the eurozone’s powerhouses – are under pressure. With the U.S. floating higher tariffs, markets are watching this PMI release closely for signs of economic fallout.
📊 PMI Forecast Snapshot:
Indicator Forecast Previous Bias
🇩🇪 Germany Manufacturing PMI 47.5 48.3 🔻
🇩🇪 Germany Services PMI 50.3 50.9 🔻
🇫🇷 France Manufacturing PMI 47.9 48.5 🔻
🇫🇷 France Services PMI 47.6 47.9 🔻
🇪🇺 Euro Area Manufacturing PMI 47.4 48.6 🔻
🇪🇺 Euro Area Services PMI 50.4 51.0 🔻
📉 Readings below 50 signal contraction.
📈 Above 50 means expansion.
💬 Why It Matters for EUR Traders
Weak PMI prints → 📉 Euro likely to fall
↳ Could fuel ECB rate cut expectations
↳ Bearish EUR bias vs. GBP, CHF, or JPY
Surprise resilience → 📈 Euro may hold up
↳ Especially vs. commodity currencies in risk-off mode (AUD, NZD, CAD)
↳ Could even bounce vs. USD if greenback selling continues
🧠 What Happened in Past Releases?
📅 March 24, 2025
🇫🇷 & 🇩🇪 Services = 🔻
Manufacturing = 🔺
🧊 Cooled ECB rate cut bets
EUR dropped early, stabilized later on relief over potential U.S. auto tariff exemptions
📅 February 21, 2025
PMIs = Net contraction, especially manufacturing
EUR dipped amid auto tariff risks and Russia-Ukraine tensions
📅 January 24, 2025
PMIs beat forecasts (still < 50 though)
Trump softened China tariff tone → EUR 🚀 early in session
Held gains in risk-on backdrop
🌍 Macro Backdrop Check
🧨 Ongoing global trade war
U.S. & China escalate with triple-digit tariffs
Markets fear supply chain collapse and global slowdown
🧭 Risk sentiment = fragile
If pessimism lingers → 💵 USD may stay under pressure
EUR reaction could be short-lived unless data is decisive
🔮 Trading Scenarios
Scenario Implication EUR Bias
Weaker-than-expected PMIs Tariff damage confirmed Bearish EUR
PMIs beat forecasts Services resilience Limited EUR support
Mixed results Choppy, rangebound action Wait for clarity
🧠 Pro tip: EUR often reacts short-term to PMI releases. Strong directional moves typically need uniform results or bigger catalysts (e.g., ECB or Fed news).
🛡️ Final Tips:
Watch the PMI trend across Germany, France, and the Eurozone
Consider the bigger macro picture (e.g., U.S. trade policy, China growth)
Don’t skip your risk management setup
👉 Wait for the data, spot the bias, and trade with discipline.
📈 Good luck out there!
The Support and Resistance outlined in green and red are the respective support/resistance for this pair currently for 1M-1Y timeframes!
No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost
TradeWithTheTrend3344
Note
1st target hit @ 0.9400 Previous swing high
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.