The Day Ahead

26
Key Market Drivers:
1. Australia Jobs Data (May)
• Jobs unexpectedly fell → AUD weakened
• AUDUSD dipped toward support; bearish bias unless RBA signals hawkish stance
• Best plays: Short AUD vs NZD, USD
2. Swiss & Norwegian Rate Cuts
• SNB cut to 0.0%, Norges Bank cut to 4.25%
• Both were dovish surprises → CHF and NOK sold off
• Best plays: Long USDCHF, EURCHF, and EURNOK
3. Bank of England (BoE)
• Held rates at 4.25%, but 2 members voted to cut
• Slightly dovish tilt → GBP under mild pressure
4. ECB Speakers
• Lagarde gave no policy signals
• Watch Villeroy/Nagel for hawkish comments → may support EUR
5. Juneteenth Holiday in US
• US markets closed → low liquidity, possible volatility in FX during London/Asia sessions

Trade Focus Summary:
• Sell CHF & NOK on dovish central bank moves
• Fade AUD rallies after weak jobs data
• Watch GBP for downside on BoE dovish lean
• EUR in play if ECB officials remain hawkish
• Expect thin trading due to US holiday


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