Key Levels:
Resistance Zone: Identify a strong resistance level where price shows repeated rejection (e.g., Fibonacci retracement level, previous swing high).
Support Zone: Ensure the 200-pip target aligns with a significant support zone or pivot area.
Indicators:
RSI/Overbought: Look for RSI divergence near overbought levels (>70).
Trend Indicators: Check moving averages (e.g., 50 EMA and 200 EMA crossover) to confirm a bearish bias.
Chart Patterns: Patterns like double tops, head & shoulders, or a trendline break may provide confirmation.
Example Setup:
Entry: Near a resistance zone at 158.50 (example level).
Stop Loss: 50 pips above at 159.00.
Take Profit: Near 156.50 (200-pip range).
2. Fundamental Factors
Monitor:
JPY Fundamentals: Look at Japanese monetary policy or interventions from the Bank of Japan, as they often impact JPY pairs.
EUR Sentiment: Analyze ECB statements, European economic data, or geopolitical news that could weaken the euro.
Risk Management
With a 1:4 risk/reward ratio, this setup is attractive if it aligns with broader trends.
Use position sizing to limit exposure to 1-2% of your trading capital per trade.