1. Market Structure & Trend Shift
The pair was in a clear uptrend, forming higher highs and higher lows.
However, price broke below the ascending trendline, signaling a potential trend reversal.
A retest of the broken trendline confirms bearish strength, as price rejected from it.
2. Entry Strategies
✅ Break & Retest Entry (Best Option)
Since price already broke and retested the trendline, the best entry point was:
Sell Entry: After price rejected the broken trendline (confirmation candle).
Confirmation: A bearish candle with a long upper wick or strong red close.
Stop Loss (SL): Above the recent high (around 163.3).
Take Profit (TP): Targeting key support zones (159.0, then 156.0).
3. Risk Management
Stop Loss Placement: Above the last high (163.3), ensuring room for market fluctuations.
Take Profit Zones:
First TP: 159.0 (psychological level & previous support).
Final TP: 156.0 (major support & full bearish target).
Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR):
If SL = 2.0 pips and TP = 6.0 pips, RRR = 1:3 (ideal for strong trades).
Ensures potential profits outweigh risk.
4. Bearish Confirmation Signs
🔴 Lower Highs & Lower Lows → Trend is shifting down.
🔴 Bearish Engulfing Candles → Strong selling pressure.
🔴 Volume Increase on Down Moves → Sellers are in control.
🔴 Retest Rejection → Confirms trendline break is valid.
5. Potential Trade Outcome
✅ Bearish Scenario (Best Case)
Price continues falling towards 159.0, then 156.0.
The trade follows a clean trendline break & retest pattern.
Successful high RRR trade (1:3 or better).
❌ Invalidation (Worst Case)
If price reclaims 163.3, the bearish setup is invalid.
This could trigger a stop-loss hit or indicate a fake breakout.
Adjust strategy and wait for a stronger confirmation.
Final Trading Plan:
✅ Wait for confirmation before entering (trendline rejection or strong bearish candle).
✅ Manage risk properly (never risk more than 2-3% per trade).
✅ Stick to the plan and avoid emotional decisions.
The pair was in a clear uptrend, forming higher highs and higher lows.
However, price broke below the ascending trendline, signaling a potential trend reversal.
A retest of the broken trendline confirms bearish strength, as price rejected from it.
2. Entry Strategies
✅ Break & Retest Entry (Best Option)
Since price already broke and retested the trendline, the best entry point was:
Sell Entry: After price rejected the broken trendline (confirmation candle).
Confirmation: A bearish candle with a long upper wick or strong red close.
Stop Loss (SL): Above the recent high (around 163.3).
Take Profit (TP): Targeting key support zones (159.0, then 156.0).
3. Risk Management
Stop Loss Placement: Above the last high (163.3), ensuring room for market fluctuations.
Take Profit Zones:
First TP: 159.0 (psychological level & previous support).
Final TP: 156.0 (major support & full bearish target).
Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR):
If SL = 2.0 pips and TP = 6.0 pips, RRR = 1:3 (ideal for strong trades).
Ensures potential profits outweigh risk.
4. Bearish Confirmation Signs
🔴 Lower Highs & Lower Lows → Trend is shifting down.
🔴 Bearish Engulfing Candles → Strong selling pressure.
🔴 Volume Increase on Down Moves → Sellers are in control.
🔴 Retest Rejection → Confirms trendline break is valid.
5. Potential Trade Outcome
✅ Bearish Scenario (Best Case)
Price continues falling towards 159.0, then 156.0.
The trade follows a clean trendline break & retest pattern.
Successful high RRR trade (1:3 or better).
❌ Invalidation (Worst Case)
If price reclaims 163.3, the bearish setup is invalid.
This could trigger a stop-loss hit or indicate a fake breakout.
Adjust strategy and wait for a stronger confirmation.
Final Trading Plan:
✅ Wait for confirmation before entering (trendline rejection or strong bearish candle).
✅ Manage risk properly (never risk more than 2-3% per trade).
✅ Stick to the plan and avoid emotional decisions.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.