📊 1. COT Report – Euro & Yen
EUR (Euro FX – CME):
Non-Commercials:
Long: +5,968 | Short: -4,293 → Net Long increasing
Commercials:
Long: +11,480 | Short: +24,451 → Net Short
→ Speculators are clearly bullish on the euro.
JPY (Japanese Yen – CME):
Non-Commercials:
Long: -5,319 | Short: +1,235 → Net Long decreasing
Commercials:
Long: +31,893 | Short: +25,462 → Hedging, but still net short
→ The yen continues to be sold, especially by institutional players.
📌 EUR/JPY COT Summary:
Speculators are buying EUR and selling JPY → strong bullish bias on EUR/JPY.
🧠 2. Retail Sentiment
80% of retail traders are short EUR/JPY, with an average entry at 161.50
Current price is around 167.20 → retail is heavily underwater
✅ Strong contrarian bullish signal
📉 3. Technical Analysis
Price broke out of a long-term range, printing new yearly highs
RSI is overbought but with no active bearish divergence
Price sits inside a major supply zone between 166.50 and 168.00, where previous rejections occurred
A potential pullback to the 164.60–164.15 area aligns with ascending trendline support
🟡 Likely Scenario:
A healthy technical pullback to 164.50–165.00 to cool off RSI,
followed by a continuation higher if supported by momentum and COT positioning
📅 4. Seasonality
June is historically a bullish month for EUR/JPY:
5-year avg: +1.167%
2-year avg: +2.41%
→ Seasonality supports more upside into early July
🌍 5. Macro Context
BoJ remains dovish, no sign of imminent tightening
ECB is steady but relatively less dovish → rate differential still favors the euro
No signs yet of verbal intervention from Japan.
EUR (Euro FX – CME):
Non-Commercials:
Long: +5,968 | Short: -4,293 → Net Long increasing
Commercials:
Long: +11,480 | Short: +24,451 → Net Short
→ Speculators are clearly bullish on the euro.
JPY (Japanese Yen – CME):
Non-Commercials:
Long: -5,319 | Short: +1,235 → Net Long decreasing
Commercials:
Long: +31,893 | Short: +25,462 → Hedging, but still net short
→ The yen continues to be sold, especially by institutional players.
📌 EUR/JPY COT Summary:
Speculators are buying EUR and selling JPY → strong bullish bias on EUR/JPY.
🧠 2. Retail Sentiment
80% of retail traders are short EUR/JPY, with an average entry at 161.50
Current price is around 167.20 → retail is heavily underwater
✅ Strong contrarian bullish signal
📉 3. Technical Analysis
Price broke out of a long-term range, printing new yearly highs
RSI is overbought but with no active bearish divergence
Price sits inside a major supply zone between 166.50 and 168.00, where previous rejections occurred
A potential pullback to the 164.60–164.15 area aligns with ascending trendline support
🟡 Likely Scenario:
A healthy technical pullback to 164.50–165.00 to cool off RSI,
followed by a continuation higher if supported by momentum and COT positioning
📅 4. Seasonality
June is historically a bullish month for EUR/JPY:
5-year avg: +1.167%
2-year avg: +2.41%
→ Seasonality supports more upside into early July
🌍 5. Macro Context
BoJ remains dovish, no sign of imminent tightening
ECB is steady but relatively less dovish → rate differential still favors the euro
No signs yet of verbal intervention from Japan.
Trade active
Waiting for a trend change. Price is overbought now
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.