EUR/PLN Bearish Momentum Building Below 200 EMA
Updated
⚫Back in April 2024, the EUR/PLN pair tested the 4.2500 support zone, where a triple bottom was established. Over the past five months, the price has consistently failed to break below this level. Simultaneously, we can identify a resistance area near 4.3750, where a double top was formed, indicating a clear trading range between 4.2500 support and 4.3750 resistance—a classic example of range trading.
⚫Looking at the broader picture, in January 2024, the 4.4100 area, previously a support level, flipped to become resistance, confirming the continuation of a long-term bearish trend. Additionally, EUR/PLN remains below the 200 Exponential Moving Average, further reinforcing the likelihood of continued downward movement.
⚫Recent price action, particularly from an Elliott Wave perspective, suggests the formation of an ABC corrective pattern, which was halted at the 4.3311 resistance level, precisely aligning with the Volume Profile. (For those unfamiliar, the Volume Profile highlights the price level where the most trading volume occurred.)
⚫Analyzing the potential Elliott Wave count, EUR/PLN appears to be progressing into the strongest downward wave—wave 3. Overall, the technical outlook remains exceptionally bearish for the long term. As a downside target and potential final support for the 5-wave decline, we can consider the double 227.2% Fibonacci support, located around the 4.1425 area.
⚫While the odds strongly favor the downtrend, it's crucial for traders to remain vigilant. In the event that the price breaks above the 4.3750 resistance, it could signal the beginning of a shift from a bearish to a bullish trend.
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