EUR/RUB SCENARIO. BREAKOUT EXPECTATION. SMALL LOCAL LONG

The pair is trading in the triangle which is also a bullish flag. With the oil that low and the ruble being an oil currency, one might expect a bullish breakout.

There is a small local long inside the triangle, but I would actually hold it, waiting for the bullish breakout and add to the position then as the positive balance of the first one will give me a good average price.

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Note

So the pair has now been trading in a 1,8 rubble range from 80.5 to 78.7 for almost two weeks now. Which I assume is clearly a result of the central bank interventions amidst the coronavirus scare. However, many pair resemble triangles now. Just look at the dollar index itself, even. Although, the latter seems to have broken out of its triangle below level 100, and looks down, which is bullish for Rubble, but bullish for euro too... Everything is in indecision, still. I would be very cautious here and beware of opening longs and shorts alike for we don't know when and how the central bank removes itself from the market, therefore, you might make a fortune if you guess but could also be stopped into debt if you don't. One might consider opening two broker accounts and going long on one and short on the other, with the deposit on both being the stop loss. Just to catch the potential move should one occur.

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