Always trying to keep things simple:
Trend if clearly UP and it's not showing sign of weakness so far. So until that changes, I'll be looking to enter a long at a discount.
Right now we over extended quite a bit especially on monday 21st during the easter holiday with low volume. And today (22nd) was an eventless day with no important news and while we had a tweet from bessent about china's deal, it wasn't really anything important at all.
So given all of that, we could expect a pullback and most likely a bit more of a pullback tomorrow.
Now we have two possibilities for the continuation in my opinion.
Either the previous week range was the consolidation needed for the price to make the next leg up and we're just gonna tap into that liquidity before moving back up (in which case an entry around the weekly pivot at 1.136, right below the golden zone from last week range to yesterday's highs fib with a great support at the 4H gap at 1.129 on the weekly R1 to limit our risk.
Or second option is a deeper retracement back into a much stronger confluence (but also less likely to happen) at the weekly support which happens to coincide with a bit daily FVG, weekly R3 and the golden zone from the fib from before the big impulse up we just had until now:
That would take us all the way down to 1.115 (not in a straight line though) which is why I said it's the less likely scenario.
That being said, if we were to go down all the way there I would definitely take a stab long at that level for a great risk:reward potential.
With those two options on the table I'll just wait for a sign of reversal on the LTF before going in either of those trades but we can see on the 1h chart that the RSI is forming a hidden bullish divergence already so things are looking alright for the first idea.
I'll try to post more updates as we get to the entry and see if I take the trade.
I want to mention one very important thing in this idea though:
those are VERY trying times for any traders, be it in stock, forex, crypto or even investors.
It's a fact and bear markets/volatile markets are notoriously hard to navigate.
You might have the right idea but get stopped before price going for your target despite using proper SL management at proper levels etc as any news/tweet can take you out in an instant in a news driven environment.
What I'm trying to say is: do not trade in the coming days/weeks if you don't have to.
Practice, paper trade, have fun with a cheap prop firm challenge to limit the risk to a couple dozen bucks etc.
I trade for a living so I have to keep going but it is a lot harder even if you try to trade with the trend and apply the rules that makes you profitable for years.
April so far is a red month for me (down about 2.5%), the first red since march of last year, that says a lot. It's fine and I'm not worried, but using proper risk management and knowing when to stay out is just as important as charting and finding out ideas, especially during those times. That's why I'm only down a few thousands instead of blowing up or wiping months of progress.
Things will calm down in due time and it will be a lot easier with price respecting levels, not running away at every opportunity and not retesting breakout levels etc etc. Those are much easier time to make a lot of money despite having lower volatility and less pips/day moves.
Be patient and consistent, now is not the time to look for new trading strategies, youtube gurus, magical indicators or whatnot!
Good luck to you all traders out there!
Trend if clearly UP and it's not showing sign of weakness so far. So until that changes, I'll be looking to enter a long at a discount.
Right now we over extended quite a bit especially on monday 21st during the easter holiday with low volume. And today (22nd) was an eventless day with no important news and while we had a tweet from bessent about china's deal, it wasn't really anything important at all.
So given all of that, we could expect a pullback and most likely a bit more of a pullback tomorrow.
Now we have two possibilities for the continuation in my opinion.
Either the previous week range was the consolidation needed for the price to make the next leg up and we're just gonna tap into that liquidity before moving back up (in which case an entry around the weekly pivot at 1.136, right below the golden zone from last week range to yesterday's highs fib with a great support at the 4H gap at 1.129 on the weekly R1 to limit our risk.
Or second option is a deeper retracement back into a much stronger confluence (but also less likely to happen) at the weekly support which happens to coincide with a bit daily FVG, weekly R3 and the golden zone from the fib from before the big impulse up we just had until now:
That would take us all the way down to 1.115 (not in a straight line though) which is why I said it's the less likely scenario.
That being said, if we were to go down all the way there I would definitely take a stab long at that level for a great risk:reward potential.
With those two options on the table I'll just wait for a sign of reversal on the LTF before going in either of those trades but we can see on the 1h chart that the RSI is forming a hidden bullish divergence already so things are looking alright for the first idea.
I'll try to post more updates as we get to the entry and see if I take the trade.
I want to mention one very important thing in this idea though:
those are VERY trying times for any traders, be it in stock, forex, crypto or even investors.
It's a fact and bear markets/volatile markets are notoriously hard to navigate.
You might have the right idea but get stopped before price going for your target despite using proper SL management at proper levels etc as any news/tweet can take you out in an instant in a news driven environment.
What I'm trying to say is: do not trade in the coming days/weeks if you don't have to.
Practice, paper trade, have fun with a cheap prop firm challenge to limit the risk to a couple dozen bucks etc.
I trade for a living so I have to keep going but it is a lot harder even if you try to trade with the trend and apply the rules that makes you profitable for years.
April so far is a red month for me (down about 2.5%), the first red since march of last year, that says a lot. It's fine and I'm not worried, but using proper risk management and knowing when to stay out is just as important as charting and finding out ideas, especially during those times. That's why I'm only down a few thousands instead of blowing up or wiping months of progress.
Things will calm down in due time and it will be a lot easier with price respecting levels, not running away at every opportunity and not retesting breakout levels etc etc. Those are much easier time to make a lot of money despite having lower volatility and less pips/day moves.
Be patient and consistent, now is not the time to look for new trading strategies, youtube gurus, magical indicators or whatnot!
Good luck to you all traders out there!
Note
So the first trade idea is already in play but it happened right after the roll over, on trump news etc so I'm not planning on taking the trade. I don't trade asian session most of the time and I don't like the idea of jumping on a trade while trump is active and I'm heading to bed.
I'll wait for london session open, see where we are, if I missed the long or if I get another shot or if we're heading toward the second entry mentioned.
There will always been other opportunities and I don't want to lose sleep over a trade!
Good luck if you took the trade though, I still think it's valid, I just don't like the timing and context.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.