After a prolonged downtrend in the EURUSD price, characterized by a series of bearish market structures and declining momentum, a significant change in character has recently emerged, indicating a transition towards a bullish market structure.
Throughout the price decline, notable supply imbalances (IMB) and fair value gaps (FVG) have materialized. As the latest upward movement mitigated a supply, the price has now approached a crucial demand order block, creating a favorable environment for a potential upward surge.
Identifying a demand zone that aligns with the current momentum and order flow, supported by substantial institutional participation, further strengthens the analysis. Additionally, the observation of a fair value gap (FVG) upon the formation of the demand order block confirms its significance.
From an inversely correlated perspective, the movements of the DXY (U.S. Dollar Index), along with gold and Bitcoin, display a synchronicity with inverse price action on the same timeframe. This lends further credibility to the analysis of the EURUSD through inverse substitution, along with direct correlations with these two commodities.
Considering the macroeconomic landscape, the Federal Reserve is actively managing the DXY's upward pressure due to its potential adverse impact on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation. Moreover, key economic indicators such as the ISM Services PMI and the upcoming Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate decision can provide valuable insights to support the prevailing momentum.
Consequently, a bullish impact is anticipated for the Euro from a broader global macroeconomic perspective. With a comprehensive analysis encompassing technical factors, institutional involvement, intermarket correlations, and macroeconomic considerations, a compelling case is presented for the continuation of the bullish trend in the EURUSD.
-Your Economist, Mahdi Kheirddine