EUR/USD Weekly Plan: Pullback or Deeper Reversal After False Breakout Near 1.1425?
🧭 MARKET OVERVIEW
EUR/USD surged toward a new monthly high at 1.1425 earlier this week but quickly lost momentum and retraced to the 1.137x zone as the US Dollar bounced back. While the short-term recovery in DXY supported the dip, macro uncertainty surrounding Trump’s erratic trade policies continues to raise questions about the dollar’s long-term credibility.
Meanwhile, Germany’s revised Q1 GDP growth of 0.4% (vs. 0.2% prior) helped support EUR, reinforcing its appeal as a safe alternative to the greenback.
📊 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (H1 Chart)
Main Trend: Short-term correction after strong bullish rally
Resistance Levels:
1.14165 → Previous top, strong reversal zone
1.14017 → Minor supply zone
Support Levels:
1.13476 → Key break structure zone
1.12791 → Daily demand zone & previous FVG bottom
Indicators:
EMA 20 & EMA 50 crossover signals weakening bullish momentum
Price Pattern: Potential double top forming below 1.1425
🌐 MACRO & FUNDAMENTAL CONTEXT
Trump’s tariff threat postponed to July 9, but his unpredictable tone weakens USD trust.
Germany Q1 GDP upgraded to 0.4% → boosts confidence in Eurozone’s economic resilience.
ECB expected to cut rates in June, with policymakers showing confidence inflation will reach 2% target this year.
This week’s key focus:
→ US PCE Price Index (April)
→ EU May HICP (CPI)
These will drive short-term volatility and determine breakout/reversal confirmation.
✅ TRADE SETUPS
🔴 SELL ZONE:
Entry: 1.1400–1.1416
SL: 1.1440
TP: 1.1382 → 1.1347 → 1.1279
🟢 BUY SCALP ZONE:
Entry: 1.1345–1.1347
SL: 1.1320
TP: 1.1382 → 1.1400
📌 Preferred scenario: Look for bearish confirmation around 1.1400–1.1416 to enter short. Avoid aggressive buys unless price strongly holds above 1.1384.
🧩 CONCLUSION
EUR/USD is showing signs of exhaustion after testing 1.1425. If bears reclaim 1.1384 and hold below 1.1347, deeper correction toward 1.1279 is likely. Conversely, if bulls defend 1.1345 and CPI/PCE data disappoints, price may retest highs.
🧭 MARKET OVERVIEW
EUR/USD surged toward a new monthly high at 1.1425 earlier this week but quickly lost momentum and retraced to the 1.137x zone as the US Dollar bounced back. While the short-term recovery in DXY supported the dip, macro uncertainty surrounding Trump’s erratic trade policies continues to raise questions about the dollar’s long-term credibility.
Meanwhile, Germany’s revised Q1 GDP growth of 0.4% (vs. 0.2% prior) helped support EUR, reinforcing its appeal as a safe alternative to the greenback.
📊 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (H1 Chart)
Main Trend: Short-term correction after strong bullish rally
Resistance Levels:
1.14165 → Previous top, strong reversal zone
1.14017 → Minor supply zone
Support Levels:
1.13476 → Key break structure zone
1.12791 → Daily demand zone & previous FVG bottom
Indicators:
EMA 20 & EMA 50 crossover signals weakening bullish momentum
Price Pattern: Potential double top forming below 1.1425
🌐 MACRO & FUNDAMENTAL CONTEXT
Trump’s tariff threat postponed to July 9, but his unpredictable tone weakens USD trust.
Germany Q1 GDP upgraded to 0.4% → boosts confidence in Eurozone’s economic resilience.
ECB expected to cut rates in June, with policymakers showing confidence inflation will reach 2% target this year.
This week’s key focus:
→ US PCE Price Index (April)
→ EU May HICP (CPI)
These will drive short-term volatility and determine breakout/reversal confirmation.
✅ TRADE SETUPS
🔴 SELL ZONE:
Entry: 1.1400–1.1416
SL: 1.1440
TP: 1.1382 → 1.1347 → 1.1279
🟢 BUY SCALP ZONE:
Entry: 1.1345–1.1347
SL: 1.1320
TP: 1.1382 → 1.1400
📌 Preferred scenario: Look for bearish confirmation around 1.1400–1.1416 to enter short. Avoid aggressive buys unless price strongly holds above 1.1384.
🧩 CONCLUSION
EUR/USD is showing signs of exhaustion after testing 1.1425. If bears reclaim 1.1384 and hold below 1.1347, deeper correction toward 1.1279 is likely. Conversely, if bulls defend 1.1345 and CPI/PCE data disappoints, price may retest highs.
⚜️ Trade with Money Market Flow, logic, Price action 📉📈
⚜️Risk Reward 1.3 to 2.5...
⚜️Daily 8 to 15 Signals Vip
⚜️Risk Reward 1.3 to 2.5...
⚜️Daily 8 to 15 Signals Vip
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
⚜️ Trade with Money Market Flow, logic, Price action 📉📈
⚜️Risk Reward 1.3 to 2.5...
⚜️Daily 8 to 15 Signals Vip
⚜️Risk Reward 1.3 to 2.5...
⚜️Daily 8 to 15 Signals Vip
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.